2017—2021年粤港澳大湾区全科医生资源配置现状及预测分析  

Current situation and forecast analysis of resource allocation of general practitioners in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,2017-2021

作　　者：谢佳美 毛秀华 林小丹 姚卫光 XIE Jia-mei;MAO Xiu-hua;LIN Xiao-dan;YAO Wei-guang(School of Health Management,Southern Medical University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510515,China)

机构地区：[1]南方医科大学卫生管理学院,广东广州510515

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第11期2037-2041,2050,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划2022年度一般项目(GD22CGL17);广东省卫生经济学会2022年科研项目(2022-WJMZ-44);广州公共卫生服务体系建设研究基地资助项目(2021-2023);南方医科大学2021年高等教育教学改革项目。

摘　　要：目的分析2017—2021年粤港澳大湾区全科医生配置现状,并预测2022—2026年全科医生数,为粤港澳大湾区优化全科医生配置提供参考。方法采用年均增长率对粤港澳大湾区全科医生数进行描述性分析,采用集聚度进行配置公平性分析,运用GM(1,1)模型预测2022—2026年全科医生数。结果2017—2021年粤港澳大湾区全科医生数从22355名增加到29972名,年均增长率为7.6%;每万人口全科医生数从3.21名增长到3.46名,年均增长率为1.8%。从集聚度来看,2017—2021年肇庆、江门、惠州、中山和澳门地区按地理面积、人口分布配置公平性均逐渐优化;广州、珠海、佛山和澳门地区全科医生资源按地理面积配置公平性得到了改善,但按人口分布配置公平性欠佳;深圳和东莞按人口分布配置公平性得到了改善,但按地理面积配置公平性欠佳。预计2026年,粤港澳大湾区全科医生数将达到4.25万人,每万人口全科医生数达3.34名。结论粤港澳大湾区全科医生队伍逐年壮大,但增速有限,全科医生配置不均衡,公平性亟需改善,在“十四五”期间应加强全科医生人才储备,提升区域内配置公平性。Objective To analyze the current situation of allocation of general practitioners in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2017 to 2021,and to predict the number of general practitioners from 2022 to 2026,so as to provide reference for allocation optimization.Methods The average annual growth rate was used to describe the number of general practitioners in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the degree of agglomeration was used to analyze the fairness of allocation,and the GM model was used to predict the number of general practitioners from 2022 to 2026.Results From 2017 to 2021,the number of general practitioners in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area increased from 22355 to 29972,with an average annual growth rate of 7.6%.The number of general practitioners per 10000 population increased from 3.21 to 3.46,with an average annual growth rate of 1.8%.Concerning agglomeration,the allocation fairness of general practitioners in Zhaoqing,Jiangmen,Huizhou,Zhongshan,and Macao region was gradually optimized in terms of geographical area and population distribution from 2017 to 2021.The allocation fairness of general practitioners according to geographical area was improved but remained suboptimal according to population distribution in Guangzhou,Zhuhai,Foshan,and Macao region.Shenzhen and Dongguan improved the allocation fairness according to population distribution,but the fairness was suboptimal according to geographical area.In 2026 the number of general practitioners in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area was estimated to reach 42500,and the number of general practitioners per 10000 population 3.34.Conclusion The general practitioner team is growing year by year in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,but with limited growth rate.The allocation of general practitioners is uneven,and the fairness needs improvement.During the“14th Five-year Plan”period,the reserve of general practitioners should be strengthened to enhance the fairness of regional allocation.

关 键 词：全科医生 资源配置 卫生集聚度 预测 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]