典型北方山前岩溶泉历史流量序列重建研究  

Study on Reconstruction of Historical Flow Sequence of Typical Karst Springs in Northern Piedmont

作　　者：许亮 郭高轩 XU Liang;GUO Gaoxuan(Beijing Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring,Beijing 100195,China;Urban Groundwater Safety Prevention and Control Technology Innovation Base,Beijing 100195,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市地质环境监测所,北京100195 [2]城市地下水安全防控技术创新基地,北京100195

出　　处：《水文》2023年第3期88-92,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：北京市百千万人才工程(2020A55);北京市科学技术协会学术示范项目—北京西山岩溶裂隙水环境演变及其生态效应。

摘　　要：泉水流量序列的缺失严重影响对水文地质条件变化的认识,故对缺失的泉水流量序列重建具有重要意义。以北方某典型山前岩溶大泉泉群实测流量、流入下游湖水流量和补给区降水量为研究对象,基于泉水动态的周期性和趋势性,采用多元线性回归模型、考虑泉流滞后降水的多元线性回归模型、SARIMA模型和SARIMA与多元线性回归相结合模型,开展了1961-1974年缺失的该典型大泉泉群流量序列的重建研究。结果表明采用SARIMA和多元线性回归相结合模型重建的流量结果较合理。The lack of spring flow series seriously affects the understanding of the changes of hydrogeological conditions,so it is of great significance to reconstruct the missing spring flow sequence.Based on the periodicity and trend of spring water dynamics,the reconstruction of the flow series of a typical karst spring group missing from 1961 to 1974 was carried out by using multiple linear regression model,multiple linear regression model considering spring lag precipitation,SARIMA model and the combination of SARIMA and multiple linear regression model.The results show that the flow reconstructed by the model combining SARIMA and multiple linear regression is reasonable.

关 键 词：泉水流量 降水量 入湖流量 数据重建 

分 类 号：P641.74[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] P333[天文地球—地质学] TV121[天文地球—水文科学]