基于人口老龄化的中国医疗卫生人员配置充分性测度——贝叶斯时空演化分析实证  

Research on the Sufficiency of China's Medical Staff Resource Allocation Based on Aging Population:Empirical Analysis of Bayesian Spatiotemporal Evolution

作　　者：韩秀兰[1,2] 王思贤 李俊明 HAN Xiu-lan;WANG Si-xian;LI Jun-ming(School of Statistics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China;Research Institute of Statistics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院,山西太原030006 [2]山西财经大学统计研究院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2023年第3期381-390,共10页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(20BJY175)。

摘　　要：基于2010-2018年省级数据,用贝叶斯时空模型分析中国老龄化与医疗卫生人员配置的时空演化特征,并构建了基于老龄化的医疗卫生人员配置水平充分性和增长充分性测度指数进行分析。研究结果表明:中国老龄化和医疗卫生人员的空间分布格局不同,局部变化趋势各异;基于老龄化的医疗卫生人员配置水平充分性西北部优于东南部,老龄化程度越高的地区医疗卫生人员配置水平越显不足;医疗卫生人员配置增长充分性西部优于东部,老龄化增长越强的地区医疗卫生人员配置增长的充分性越低;基于老龄化的医疗卫生人员配置充分性将各地区分为四个层次:水平充分性和增长充分性兼具的省份占26%,水平充分、增长不足的省份占22%,水平不足、增长充分的省份占39%,水平和增长双重不足的省份占13%。基于上述结论提出了基于老龄化时空演化特征进行医疗卫生资源均衡、充分配置的相关建议。Based on the provincial data of 2010-2018,applied Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of China's aging and medical resource,and constructs the scale and growth sufficiency measurement index.The results show that:the spatial distribution pattern of China's aging population is different from that of medical staff,the local change trends are also different.The scale sufficiency of medical staff shows that the northwest is better than the southeast,this means that the regions with higher aging have lower level of medical and health staffing.The growth suficiency of medical staff shows that the west is better than the East,areas with stronger aging growth have lower adequacy of the increase in medical and health personnel allocation.Based on the adequacy of medical and health personnel allocation based on aging,China's regions are divided into four levels:Scale and growth sufficiency,scale sufficiency but growth insufficiency,growth suficiency but scale insufficiency,scale and growth insuficiency.The provinces accounted for 26%,22%,39%and 13%respectively.Based on the above conclusions,the relevant suggestions for balanced allocation of medical and health resources based on the temporal and spatial evolution of aging are presented.

关 键 词：医疗卫生人员 老龄化 时空演化分析 充分性测度指数 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]