基于多尺度地理加权回归的黄河流域空气质量影响因素空间效应解析  

Analyzing Spatial Effects of Influencing Factors on Air Quality in the Yellow River Basin Using Multi-Scale Geographically Weighted Regression

作　　者：呼慧 洪志敏[1] HU Hui;HONG Zhi-min(School of Sciences,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010051,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2023年第3期416-426,共11页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81860605);内蒙古自然科学基金(2020MS01005);内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(JY20220087)。

摘　　要：以2017年黄河流域城市空气质量监测数据为研究对象,首先给出了空气质量的时空变化特征,然后利用多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)模型分析各因素在不同尺度下对空气质量作用的空间异质性。结果显示:(1)2017年黄河流域中下游大部分地区的空气质量指数(AQI)处于轻度污染水平,季度的AQI呈冬高夏低的特征,其中,冬季处于中度污染水平的地区主要集中在黄河中下游地区。月度的AQI呈“U”型分布,其拐点出现在8月份;(2)第二产业比重、城镇人口比例、总人口数、降雨量和温度对空气质量的影响显著,其中,第二产业比重和城镇人口比例全局影响空气质量,总人口数在中等异质水平下影响空气质量,降雨量和温度在较高异质水平下影响空气质量;(3)第二产业比重、城镇人口比例和总人口数对空气质量的影响为正向,而降雨量和温度对空气质量的影响为负向,其中,总人口数对黄河中游地区影响较大,降雨量对黄河上游地区影响较大,温度对黄河中下游地区影响较大。Taking the urban air quality monitoring data of the Yellow River Basin in 2017 as the research object,firstly,the characteristics of the temporal and spatial changes of air quality are given,and then the multi-scale geographically weighted regression(MGWR)model is used to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of the effects of various factors on air quality at different scales.The results show that:(1)In 2017,the air quality index(AQI)of most areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin was at a light pollution level,and the seasonal AQI was high in winter and low in summer.Among them,the areas with moderate pollution levels in winter were mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.The monthly AQI has a"U"-shaped distribution,and its turning point appears in August;(2)The proportion of the secondary industry,the proportion of the urban population,the total population,rainfall and temperature have a significant impact on air quality,of which the proportion of the secondary industry and the proportion of urban population affect air quality globally.The total population affects air quality at a moderately heterogeneous level,while rainfall and temperature affect air quality at a higher heterogeneous level;(3)The proportion of the secondary industry,the proportion of urban population and the total population have a positive impact on air quality,while the impact of rainfall and temperature on air quality is negative.Among them,the total population has a greater impact on the middle reaches of the Yellow River,rainfall has a greater impact on the upper reaches of the Yellow River,and temperature has a greater impact on the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.

关 键 词：黄河流域 空气质量 多尺度地理加权回归 空间异质性 尺度效应 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计] R752[理学—数学]