美国货币政策冲击对人民币汇率波动的影响——基于Redux模型分析  

The Impact of US Monetary Policy Shocks on RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations

作　　者：刘文革[1] 林丹丹 LIU Wen-ge;LIN Dan-dan(School of International Economics and International Relations,Liaoning University,Shenyangl10136,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学国际经济政治学院,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《税务与经济》2023年第3期66-74,共9页Taxation and Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(18VSJ024)。

摘　　要：基于Redux理论模型,分析美国货币政策冲击对人民币汇率波动的影响。研究表明,人民币汇率对美国利率和我国货币供给的冲击响应为正,对美国货币供给和我国利率的冲击响应为负;美国货币供给和利率的冲击大于我国货币供给和利率的冲击对人民币汇率的影响;中美收入相对变动冲击对人民币汇率波动的影响最大,同时,中美利率的相对变动冲击对人民币汇率波动的影响较大。因此,我国应稳定且有序地开放资本账户,进一步打通利率市场分割壁垒,加快人民币国际化进程。在积极关注美国货币政策变动的同时,应协调推进国内的货币政策与财政政策有效结合,这样才更有利于稳定人民币汇率。Based on the Redux theory model,this paper analyzes the impact of the US monetary policy shocks on RMB exchange rate fluctuations. The research shows that the impact response of RMB exchange rate to American interest rate and Chinese money supply is positive,while that to American money supply and Chinese interest rate is negative. The impact of US money supply and interest rate on RMB exchange rate is greater than that of Chinese money supply and interest rate. The impact of the relative change of income in China and the US has the greatest impact on the volatility of RMB exchange rate,followed by the impact of the relative change of interest rate in China and the US. Therefore,following policies and measures are more conducive to the stable RMB exchange rate:stable and orderly opening of the capital account,further breaking through the barriers of interest rate market segmentation,accelerating the process of RMB internationalization,actively paying attention to the changes of US monetary policy,and coordinating the effective combination of domestic monetary policy and fiscal policy.

关 键 词：货币政策 人民币汇率 REDUX模型 

分 类 号：F830.73[经济管理—金融学]