城乡居民保能降低农村低收入家庭贫困脆弱性吗?——基于PSM-DID的实证分析  

Can Urban and Rural Residents′ Insurance Reduce the Poverty Vulnerability of Rural Low-Income Families?

作　　者：李盛基 商明贺 周十同 LI Sheng-ji;SHANG Ming-he;ZHOU Shi-tong(School of Public Administration,Changchun University of Technology,Changchun 130051,China)

机构地区：[1]长春工业大学公共管理学院,吉林长春130051

出　　处：《税务与经济》2023年第3期91-98,共8页Taxation and Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(20CJL017);国家自然科学基金项目面上项目(71973022);吉林省教育厅社会科学项目(JJKH20200692SK)。

摘　　要：利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014~2018年平衡面板数据,采用期望贫困脆弱性(VEP)测算农村低收入家庭贫困脆弱性状况,同时运用固定效应模型和双重差分倾向得分匹配法(PSM-DID),考察城乡居民保对农村低收入家庭贫困脆弱性的影响。研究显示,农户参加城乡居民保具有缓解农村低收入家庭贫困脆弱性的作用;在农村地区巩固脱贫成果、防止返贫工作取得了较好的成效;家庭人均纯收入、家庭人均消费、受教育年限对农村低收入家庭贫困脆弱性均具有显著的负向影响。我国应利用贫困脆弱性等事前概念构建脱贫质量的监测预警体系,实施城乡居民保保费减免补贴措施,鼓励农村低收入家庭应保尽保、提高缴费水平。还要通过商业保险发展个体养老保险计划,形成多支柱养老保障格局,充分发挥养老保险的减贫效应。This paper examines the impact of urban and rural residents′ insurance on poverty vulnerability of rural low-income households by using the balanced panel data of the China Family Panel Survey(CFPS)from 2014to 2018,the fixed effect model and double difference propensity score matching method(PSM-DID). Research shows that rural households′ participation in urban and rural residents′ insurance has the effect of alleviating the poverty vulnerability of rural low-income families;good results have been achieved in consolidating poverty alleviation achievements and preventing return to poverty in rural areas;family per capita net income,family per capita consumption,and years of education have a significant negative impact on the poverty vulnerability of rural low-income households. It is suggested to use ex-ante concepts such as poverty vulnerability to build a monitoring and early warning system for the quality of poverty alleviation,implement insurance premium reduction and subsidy measures for urban and rural residents,and encourage rural low-income families to participate the insurance as much as possible and increase payment levels. It is also necessary to develop individual pension plans through commercial insurance,form a multi-pillar pension security structure,and give full play to the poverty reduction effect of pension insurance.

关 键 词：城乡居民保 农村低收入家庭 贫困脆弱性 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]