俄乌冲突的余波:美国对台政策的“乌克兰化”及其局限  

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict's Repercussions:The“Ukrainization”of U.S.-Taiwan,China Policy and Its Limits

作　　者：周文星 Zhou Wenxing

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2023年第3期14-33,共20页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：2021年度国家社科基金青年项目“美国国会立法干涉台湾问题的规律､风险与对策研究(1973-2021)”(21CGJ047);2021年江苏省“双创博士”项目(JSSCBS20210049)。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突对美国各界的对台政策认知形成了重大冲击,对台政策辩论日益呈现“乌克兰化”的危险趋势,这为美国政府趁势推动对台政策的“乌克兰化”提供了某种契机。为了预防和应对潜在的台海危机,美国对台政策的新动向包括:加速迈向战略与战术双重清晰､更重视助台打造“非对称战力”与提升美台军事安全合作､持续深化与盟友伙伴国家的对台政策协调。美国将随着俄乌局势的变化而动态调整其对台政策,短期内势必对台海局势､中美关系以及亚太国际关系造成一定的负面影响,但从中长期来看,俄乌冲突对美国对台政策的影响仍然是有限的。The Russia-Ukraine conflict has made a significant impact on the debate in the United States about its policy towards the Taiwan region,leading to a dangerous trend of“Ukrainization”.This provides an opportunity for the U.S.government to push for“Ukrainization”in its adjustment of Taiwan policy.In order to prevent and respond to potential crises in the Taiwan Straits,the Taiwan,China policy of the U.S.is seeking strategic and tactical clarity.In the meanwhile,it places greater emphasis on assisting Taiwan,China in developing“asymmetric defense capabilities”and enhancing military security cooperation between the U.S.and the Taiwan region,as well as deepening policy coordination with allies and partner countries.The United States will adjust its Taiwan,China policy based on changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation.Such policy adjustment will inevitably have some negative impact on cross-Straits affairs,China-U.S.relations,and Asia-Pacific international relations in the short term.However,in the medium and long term,the impact of the RussiaUkraine conflict on the U.S.policy towards the Taiwan region remains limited.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 美国对台政策 “保台论” “乌克兰化” 台湾问题 中美关系 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学] D822.371.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]