强制与克制:拜登政府台海政策中的对冲逻辑  

Coercion and Restraint:The Hedging Logic in the Biden Administration's China Taiwan Policy

作　　者：夏昂 孙云[1] Xia Ang;Sun Yun

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2023年第3期34-45,共12页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：教育部高校国别和区域研究2021年度规划课题“拜登政府台海政策‘再模糊化’研究”(2021-G13)。

摘　　要：拜登政府的台海政策兼有战略强制和战略克制的成分,存在一种对冲逻辑。这种逻辑是基于其对于“台海现状”和被中国台湾当局“牵连”的双重认知。根据强制和克制的概念以及上述双重认知,可以构建对冲逻辑分析框架来解释拜登政府的台海政策。对冲逻辑可细分为四种类型,结合对应的四种情况进行推理分析后发现,拜登政府在台海的对冲逻辑体现了美国外交中的机会主义和实用主义。这一逻辑服务于美国对华遏制的大战略,可能给台海和平稳定带来巨大风险。The Biden administration's China Taiwan Policy combines elements of strategic coercion and strategic restraint,exhibiting a hedging logic.This logic is based on its dual perception of the“status quo of the Taiwan Straits situation”and the U.S.being“entangled”in the Taiwan region.By employing the concepts of coercion and restraint,as well as analyzing the“dual perception”,this paper aims to construct an analytical framework to explain the hedging logic in the Biden administration's China Taiwan Policy regarding the Chinese mainland.It subdivides the hedging logic into four types and then analyzes each corresponding situation.In the end,the paper concludes that the Biden administration's hedging logic in the Taiwan Straits embodies opportunism and pragmatism in U.S.diplomacy.This logic serves the grand strategy of containing China and may pose significant risks to peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits.

关 键 词：拜登政府 台海 强制 克制 对冲 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学] D822.371.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]