国际经济新格局下中国企业进口再布局——基于量化进口贸易模型的结构式估计  

Relocation of Global Sourcing of Chinese Firms Under New International Economic Pattern:Structural Estimation Based on Quantitative Sourcing Model

作　　者：王永进[1] 杨璐 Wang Yongjin and Yang Lu(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,300071

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2023年第4期3-22,共20页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“竞争中性原则与中国对外贸易利益:理论机制、实证检验与量化分析”(72073073)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于中国多种所有制并存的制度背景,拓展了Antràs等(2017)提出的异质性企业全球采购框架,并使用中国工业企业与海关数据库,对中国企业全球采购布局的影响因素和特征事实进行估算,进而模拟了中美贸易摩擦以及RCEP政策导致采购市场环境变化对中国企业进口布局调整的影响。结论表明:中国企业在不同国家的进口决策彼此关联,单个市场冲击会影响企业的全球采购布局;与民营企业相比,国有企业在企业数目和进口规模上均处于进口市场的“优势地位”,是我国扩大进口的重要依托;国有企业的进口固定成本更低,市场需求扩张更快速,二者共同驱动了其进口快速增长;国有企业采购策略集合之间的替代性强于民营企业的此替代性,即当美国采购潜力下降时国有企业更多地将进口需求转移到其他市场,当RCEP成员国的采购潜力上升时民营进口企业不仅对RCEP国家采购增加,而且对本国和第三国的采购也增加(与国有进口企业相反);RCEP协定的积极效果将弱化美国对华出口限制的负面影响,成为中国反击贸易保护主义、增强抵御国际风险能力的有效举措。We expand the multi-country sourcing model proposed by Antràs et al.(2017)based on the institutional background of China's multiple ownership structure.Using Chinese industrial enterprises and customs database,this paper estimates the influencing factors and stylized facts of the global sourcing layout of Chinese firms,and simulates the impact of Sino-US trade frictions and the RCEP policy on the adjustment of Chinese firms'sourcing decisions.The conclusions show that:(1)The sourcing decisions of Chinese firms in different countries are relevant to each other,and a single market shock will affect the global procurement layout;(2)Compared with private enterprises,state-owned enterprises are in the dominant position in the import market in terms of the number of enterprises and import scale,which is a significant support for China to expand imports;(3)Lower fixed cost and faster expansion of market demand jointly drive the rapid growth of state-owned enterprises'imports;(4)The positive effects of the RCEP agreement will offset and exceed the negative impact of US export restrictions on China,and become an effective measure to counter trade protectionism and enhance resilience to international risk.

关 键 词：进口 异质性企业 结构式估计 RCEP 中美贸易 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易] F425[经济管理—产业经济]