Economic Policy Uncertainty:Cross-Country Linkages and Spillover Effects on Economic Development in Some Belt and Road Countries  

作　　者：YUAN Jing DONG Yajing ZHAI Weijie CAI Zongwu 

机构地区：[1]School of Statistics,Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai 264005,China [2]School of Statistics and Data Science,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China [3]Department of Economics,University of Kansas,Lawrence,KS 66045,USA

出　　处：《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》2023年第3期1169-1188,共20页系统科学与复杂性学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 71631004,72033008;the Humanity and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China under Grant No.18YJA790101

摘　　要：With the increase of economic environment uncertainty,it is of great importance to study the linkage and spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty among countries.Especially,this article selects eight countries along the Belt and Road as the core countries(China,Korea,Croatia,India,Russia,Greece,Pakistan,and Singapore)and four countries(Germany,France,Japan,and UK)as the peripheral countries,and then copula technique and mixed-frequency global vector autoregressive model are employed to analyze the correlation and the spillover effect of the economic policy uncertainty(EPU)for the twelve selected countries,respectively.The proposed empirical findings show clearly that the EPU correlation among the eight core Belt and Road countries is stronger and the spillover effect of the core countries to the peripheral countries is statistically significant.As a result,for harmonious and win-win development,the Belt and Road countries should pay a close attention to the EPU,because the stability of the EPU promotes greatly the economy development.

关 键 词：Belt and road initiative copula functions economic policy uncertainty global VAR spillover effects 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]