黄淮海区夏玉米风灾风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Summer Maize Wind Disaster in Huanghuaihai Area

作　　者：王孝虎 崔日鲜 宋朝玉[2] 王圣健[2] 杨锦忠 WANG Xiaohu;CUI Rixian;SONG Chaoyu;WANG Shengjian;YANG Jinzhong(College of Agronomy,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266019,China;Qingdao Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Qingdao 266199,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学农学院/山东省旱作农业技术重点实验室,山东青岛266109 [2]青岛市农业科学院,山东青岛266199

出　　处：《青岛农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期79-83,共5页Journal of Qingdao Agricultural University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300306)。

摘　　要：风灾是危害黄淮海区夏玉米生产的重要因素,但一直缺乏其风险的定量评价,在一定程度上影响其精准防控。利用1961—2020年7月至9月的逐日极端最大风速数据,分析了黄淮海区夏玉米风灾风险的时空分布及大风破坏力的变化规律。结果表明,该区发生6级及以上大风的年均频次在3.77~35.19 d之间,7级及以上大风则在1.01~14.25 d之间,且大风频率的中位数随风力等级的增加而逐渐下降;胶东半岛和济南的各级大风频率处于较高水平。大风频率随月份递进而减小,减小动态符合logistic回归方程,而且随着风力等级的增加,回归系数由-0.1185逐渐减少到-1.8754。此外,风压作为风灾的力学根源,其值随风力等级的增加呈幂函数增加,风压越大则大风的破坏力越大;大风破坏力的空间分布更能反映其风灾风险。研究结果为玉米倒伏抗性育种和栽培提供理论依据和数据支撑。Wind disaster is a major constraint that could adversely endanger summer maize growth and production in Huanghuaihai area.Although quantitative evaluation of wind disaster risks of summer maize is essential for achieving precise prevention and control,the knowledge about quantitative analysis of wind disaster is still poorly known.In this study,the statistical analysis of daily maximum wind speed during July to September from 1961 to 2020 was used to study the temporal and spatial distribution of summer maize wind disaster risk and trends and variations of wind damage force in Huanghuaihai area.The results showed that the average annual frequencies of strong winds with class 6 and above in this area were 3.77 to 35.19 days.Winds above class 7 ranged from 1.01 to 14.25 days.The median of gale frequency gradually decreased with the increase of wind grade.The gale frequency of Jiaodong Peninsula and Jinan was at a high level.The frequency of strong winds decreased as the month progressed,and the decreasing trend conformed to the logistic regression equation.Moreover,with the increase in wind grade,the regression coefficient decreased from-0.1185 to-1.8754.In addition,as the mechanical source of wind disaster,the value of wind pressure increasesd with the increase of wind level in a power function.The greater the wind pressure was the more destructive the wind was.The spatial distribution of wind damage force could better reflect its wind disaster risk.The results of this study provide theoretical basis and data support for maize lodging resistance breeding and cultivation.

关 键 词：夏玉米 黄淮海地区 风灾 大风频率 大风破坏力 

分 类 号：S424[农业科学—植物保护]