沱江流域人口老龄化空间格局演变特征分析  

Evolution characteristics of spatial pattern of population aging inTuojiangRiver Basin in recent 30 years

作　　者：季薇 杨永丰[1] JI Wei;YANG Yongfeng(College of Geography and Tourism,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《内江师范学院学报》2023年第6期79-87,共9页Journal of Neijiang Normal University

基　　金：2021年重庆市研究生教改项目(yjg213066);2018年重庆市研究生教改项目(yjg182020)。

摘　　要：利用1990、2000、2010和2020年人口普查数据,基于GeoDA-GIS平台,采用空间自相关分析方法和人口重心模型,测算沱江流域各县人口老龄化的空间分布格局及演变特征.研究结果表明:(1)沱江流域人口老龄化整体呈现出“均质”空间分布特征,老龄化进程随时间不断向深度推进;(2)30年间整体老年人口负担系数快速增长,整体养老负担不断加重,但各县养老负担增长速度存在差异;(3)老年人口密度随时间推移而不断增大,各县之间空间分异显著;(4)30年间沱江流域老龄化系数与老年负担系数重心均向东南方向移动,老年人口密度重心向西北方向移动,老年人口在空间上呈现出分布不均衡的态势;(5)沱江流域各相邻区县老年人口分布存在正的自相关性,且总体空间聚集性不断增强,呈现出高高和低低聚集的空间分布特征,30年间高高聚集与低低聚集类型的空间位置发生转换.从空间角度认识了沱江流域人口老龄化的地区分布特征与演变情况.Using county data from censuses in the years of 1990,2000,2010 and 2020,based on DeoDA-GIS platform,by means of spatial auto-correlation analysis and population gravity center model,a measurement was made of the spatial distribution pattern and evolution characteristics of population aging in each county in the Tuojiang River basin.The results showed that:(1)Population aging in the Tuojiang River Basin presents a"homogeneous"spatial distribution,and the aging process continues to advance with time.(2)In the past 30 years,the burden coefficient of the overall elderly population has increased rapidly,and the overall pension burden is ever on the increase,but the growth rate of the pension burden is different among counties.(3)The density of the elderly population increases with the passage of time,and the spatial differentiation among counties is significant.(4)In the past 30 years,the center of gravity of aging coefficient and aging burden coefficient in the Tuojiang River basin moved towards the southeast,and the center of gravity of elderly population density moved towards the northwest,showing an unbalanced spatial distribution of the elderly population.(5)There is a significant positive correlation between the spatial distribution of the elderly population,and the overall spatial aggregation is continuously enhanced,showing the spatial distribution characteristics of high-high and low-low aggregation.The past 30 years saw a spatial location shift of high-high towards low-low aggregation types.The regional distribution characteristics and evolution of population aging in the Tuojiang River basin are examined from the perspective of space.

关 键 词：沱江流域 空间演变 空间自相关分析 人口重心 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]