综合交通运输网络背景下规划航道货运需求预测——以湘桂运河为例  

Forecasting of Freight Demand of Planned Canal under the Background of Comprehensive Transportation Network——A Case Study of Xiang-Gui Canal

作　　者：乔婧 QIAO Jing(Institute of Comprehensive Transportation of Academy of Macroeconomic Research of NDRC,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院综合运输研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《物流科技》2023年第15期86-88,共3页Logistics Sci-Tech

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(21YJC630094)。

摘　　要：为了发挥综合运输交通网整体优势,提升水运预测的精准性,以大量铁路、公路、水运等运输方式的货运量和相关地区生产总值调研为基础,分析水运与综合运输网络、经济产业带动关系,采用四阶段预测方法,考虑区域综合运输需求和带动经济产业再分配,提出综合运输网络下规划运河货运预测思路流程,结合考虑运输价格和时间的LOGIT模型,利用TRANSCAD软件,对湘桂运河2035年和2050年的货运量预测。结果表明本预测流程为规划航道货运需求量预测和论证运河规划方案的可行性提供了一种新的思路。In order to give full play to the advantages of the comprehensive transportation network and improve the accuracy of water transport forecast,based on a lot of investigation,including the freight volume of railways,highways and waterways and the GDP of relevant regions,the driving relationship between waterway and comprehensive transport network is analyzed.The four-stage forecasting method is adopted to consider the regional comprehensive transport demand and drive the redistribution of economic industries,and the planned canal freight forecasting thought process under the comprehensive transport network is proposed.Combined with LOGIT model considering price and time,the traffic volume of Xiang-Gui Canal in 2035 and 2050 is predicted by using TRANSCAD software.The results show that the forecast process can provide data support for forecasting the freight demand of waterway planning and verifying the feasibility of canal planning scheme.

关 键 词：综合运输 水运货运量 规划航道 四阶段法 

分 类 号：U695.2[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]