长春市客运交通碳排放驱动因素分析  

Analysis of Drivers of Carbon Emissions from Passenger Transportation in Changchun

作　　者：齐国江 张飞军[1] QI Guojiang;ZHANG Feijun(School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Jilin Jianzhu University,Changchun Jilin 130118,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林建筑大学交通科学与工程学院,吉林长春130118

出　　处：《交通节能与环保》2023年第3期72-77,共6页Transport Energy Conservation & Environmental Protection

摘　　要：为确定长春市客运交通碳排放主要驱动因素,在研究中,首先采用了“自下而上”和“总量-结构”两种交通碳排放核算方法,估算了长春市2011—2020年客运交通碳排放量,对城市交通碳排放驱动因素进行了分析;然后,建立了STIRPAT拓展模型,采用最小二乘法-逐步回归法确定了城市客运交通碳排放的主要驱动因素;最后,以长春市城市客运交通碳排放主要驱动因素为研究对象,进行了实例分析。结果表明:城镇化率、人均道路面积、机动车保有量对碳排放量具有促进作用,公交、轨道交通客运量对其具有抑制作用,据此为降低长春市客运交通碳排放提出建议,为城市低碳交通方案制定及政策出台提供参考。In order to determine the main drivers of passenger transportation carbon emissions in Changchun,we firstly adopted two methods of accounting for transportation carbon emissions,namely"bottom-up"and"total-structure",to estimate the passenger transportation carbon emissions in Changchun from 2011 to 2020,and analyzed the main drivers of urban transportation carbon emissions.Then,the STIRPAT expansion model was established and the least squares-stepwise regression method was used to determine the main drivers of urban passenger transportation carbon emissions.The results show that the urbanization rate,per capita road area and motor vehicle ownership have a catalytic effect on carbon emissions,while the passenger volume of public transportation and rail transportation has a suppressive effect on them,thus suggesting recommendations to reduce the carbon emissions of passenger transportation in Changchun,and providing a reference for the formulation of low-carbon transportation plans and policies in the city.

关 键 词：交通碳排放 影响因素 STIRPAT模型 城市客运交通 最小二乘法-逐步回归法 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]