基于多情景经济评价的哥伦比亚油气财税分析与对标  

COLOMBIA S OIL-GAS FISCAL&TAX POLICIES ANALYSIS AND BENCHMARKING BASED ON MULTI-SCENARIO ECONOMIC EVALUATION

作　　者：王斌[1,2] WANG Bin(School of Earth Sciences and Resources,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;China Foreign Economic and Trade Trust Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100032,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京100083 [2]中国对外经济贸易信托有限公司,北京100032

出　　处：《资源与产业》2023年第3期42-52,共11页Resources & Industries

摘　　要：油气合同与财税条款是影响海外油气投资的核心要素,很大程度上决定了项目利润在投资者与资源国政府之间的分配模式及比例。全面、深入地解析哥伦比亚油气财税条款,以期为新形势下赴哥伦比亚开展油气投资的中国企业提供有价值的参考。系统梳理了哥伦比亚油气财税合同的发展历史与现状,并基于哥伦比亚新旧油气合同模式财税条款,构建模拟经济评价模型;基于不同油价、产量规模和API度开展多情景下油气项目经济评价对比分析;构建包含财税条款经济性和财税条款稳定性两大方面、9个指标的财税吸引力评价体系,选取地区前十大油气资源国开展油气财税吸引力对标。研究表明:哥伦比亚新合同模式降低了资源国政府的参与度和经济收益,外国石油公司经营的自由度和经济性明显提升;根据多情景经济评价,高油价下合同者每立方米净现金流要高于低油价每立方米净现金流,API度更低的重油资产有税收优惠,在高产量规模情景下每立方米的税收增加;根据油气财税吸引力对标,哥伦比亚在南美洲前十大油气储量国中排名第4,吸引力较高。通过分析认为哥伦比亚油气资源和财税条款在同地区均具有比较优势,在中哥友好关系持续深化的背景下,中哥油气合作前景较为广阔。建议中国企业加大对哥伦比亚油气行业投资机会的关注,合同者在新购入哥伦比亚资产时要重点考虑资产类型对经济效益的影响,同时还需要综合考虑政策调整带来的相关风险。Oil-gas contracts and fiscal&tax polices,which are two core factors in investing overseas oil-gas,largely determine the gain distribution mode and proportion between investors and hosting governments.This paper studies Colombia s oil-gas fiscal&tax policies aiming at providing reference for Chinese investors under new situation.After introducing the history and situation of Colombia s oil-gas fiscal&tax contracts,this paper establishes an economic evaluation model based on the fiscal&tax terms of new and old oil-gas contracts,which is used to economically evaluate oil-gas projects under multiple scenarios from oil price,production scales and API degree.Evaluation system is constructed,including 9 indicators on fiscal&tax economy and stability,to benchmark the top ten oil-gas resources countries in this area.Colombia s new contract mode decreases the involvement and economic gain of hosting government and increases foreign investors operating freedom and economic gains.Multiple scenarios economic evaluation shows that the net cash flow per cubic meter under the high oil price is more than that of the low oil price.Heavy oil assets with lower API degree have tax incentives,and the tax cost per cubic meter increases under the high production scale.Colombia s oil-gas fiscal&tax attractiveness benchmark shows that it ranks the fourth among South America s top 10 oil-gas countries.Colombia s oil-gas resources and fiscal&tax policies are of relative advantages in this area,of prospecting outlook in future oil-gas cooperation.This paper presents suggestion for Chinese investors on paying more attention to investing oil-gas industry in Colombia,focusing on the impact of assets type on economic benefits,and risks brought by policy adjustment.

关 键 词：哥伦比亚 油气合同与财税条款 经济评价 财税吸引力对标 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]