关于构建“四预”措施和“四个链条”相结合的干旱灾害防御矩阵的思考  

Thinking on combining“four pre”measures and“four chains”to construct a drought defense matrix

作　　者：屈艳萍[1,2] 张学君 苏志诚[1,2] 吕娟[1,2] Qu Yanping;Zhang Xuejun;Su Zhicheng;Lyu Juan

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《中国水利》2023年第11期15-19,共5页China Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42001039);水利部水旱灾害防御创新团队项目(WH0145B042021)。

摘　　要：在充分借鉴洪水灾害防御“四个链条”基础上,考虑干旱及其灾害孕育、发生及发展规律和特点等,明晰干旱灾害“四个链条”,构建“四预”措施和“四个链条”相结合的干旱灾害防御矩阵迫在眉睫。提出要遵循“气象干旱—水文干旱—社会经济干旱”链式传导规律,加强雨情、水情、墒情、旱情的“四情”监测,精准“范围—对象—调度”,贯通“技术—料物—队伍—组织”的旱灾防御“四个链条”,实现滚动更新旱情预报、及时发布旱情预警信息、动态预演干旱灾害影响以及迭代更新抗旱预案。Building upon the comprehensive analysis of flood disaster defense’s“four chains”and considering the patterns and characteristics of drought occurrence,development,and impacts,it is imperative to establish the“four chains”of drought disaster and integrate them with the“four pre”measures to form a drought defense matrix.This study proposes following the sequential transmission law of“meteorological drought,hydrological drought,socioeconomic drought”,strengthening the monitoring of rainfall,water resources,soil moisture and drought conditions,implementing accurate“scope,object,scheduling”measures,and integrating the“four chains”of“technology,material,team,organization”for drought defense.The aim is to achieve real-time updates of drought forecasts,timely dissemination of drought warning information,dynamic simulations of drought disaster impacts,and iterative updates of drought relief plans.

关 键 词：干旱灾害 防御矩阵 “四预”措施 “四个链条” 四情监测 抗旱预案 

分 类 号：S761.1[农业科学—森林保护学] TV[农业科学—林学]