农业节水灌溉REITs项目IRR测算研究  

Research on IRR calculation of agricultural water-saving irrigation REITs project

作　　者：王蕾[1] 裴晓桃[2] 陈天惠 彭圣 孙丽萍 张建红 Wang Lei;Pei Xiaotao;Chen Tianhui;Peng Sheng;Sun Liping;Zhang Jianhong

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100048 [2]北京经济管理职业学院,北京100102 [3]北京京西生态文旅投资有限公司,北京102308 [4]中化商务有限公司,北京100045 [5]中国国际经济咨询有限公司,北京100004 [6]中国国际工程咨询有限公司,北京100048

出　　处：《中国水利》2023年第11期67-72,共6页China Water Resources

摘　　要：通过农业节水灌溉特许经营项目REITs案例研究发现,基础设施特许经营项目存在价值漏损时,可采用修正的B-S期权模型进行估值,可分配现金流用于分红的比例越高,投资收益越高,但项目的看涨期权价值越低。在项目高溢价转让的情况下,银行贷款比例越高、偿还时间越短,投资内部收益率(IRR)及投资收益可能越低;收益波动越大,看涨期权价值越大,但IRR可能会下降。采用B-S期权定价模型丰富了现有经营权类公募REITs资产估值方法,具有推广应用价值。对公募REITs产品在不同贷款比例、还款期限以及分红条件下确定合理投资收益,具有实践指导作用。Through a case study of agricultural water-saving irrigation franchise projects in the context of REITs,it was found that when there is value leakage in infrastructure franchise projects,the modified B-S option model should be used for valuation.The study reveals that the higher the proportion of distributable cash flow allocated for dividends,the higher the investment income,but the lower the call option value of the project.In the case of high premium transfer of the project,a higher proportion of bank loans and shorter repayment time may result in lower IRR and investment income.Higher earnings volatility leads to greater call option value,but it may result in a decline in IRR.The adoption of the B-S option pricing model enriches the existing methods for valuing REITs assets in the form of public offerings of management rights and holds potential for wider application.The research provides practical guidance in determining the reasonable investment income of public offering REITs products under different loan proportions,repayment periods,and dividend conditions.

关 键 词：特许经营 公募REITs B-S期权定价模型 投资内部收益率(IRR) 并购贷款 收益测算 

分 类 号：F323.213[经济管理—产业经济] S27[农业科学—农业水土工程] TV[农业科学—农业工程]