HEC-HMS模型在漓江上游流域洪水预报中的应用  

Application of HEC-HMS model in flood forecasting for upper reaches of Lijiang River Basin

作　　者：冯世伟 邓芳芳 李静[3] FENG Shi-wei;DENG Fang-fang;LI Jing(Guangxi Hydraulic Research Institute,Guangxi Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Materials and Structures,Nanning 530023,China;Guangxi Keyuan Engineering Consultant Co.,Ltd.,Nanning 530023,China;Guangxi University of Foreign Languages,Nanning 530023,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区水利科学研究院广西水工程材料与结构重点实验室,南宁530023 [2]广西科源工程咨询有限责任公司,南宁530023 [3]广西外国语学院,南宁530023

出　　处：《广西水利水电》2023年第3期19-23,共5页Guangxi Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：广西重点研发计划项目(桂科AB19259015,桂科AB20159003)。

摘　　要：漓江上游流域洪水灾害频发,是广西山洪灾害多发区中较严重的流域之一。本文以漓江上游流域为研究对象,通过HEC-HMS水文模型,采用SCS-CN法计算降水损失、Snyder单位线法计算坡面汇流、退水曲线法模拟基流、马斯京根法进行河道洪水演算等4种研究方法模拟降雨-径流过程,基于实测水文、气象数据资料选取2008—2013年的27场洪水作为率定期洪水,2014—2015年8场洪水作为验证期洪水进行降雨径流模拟,经过模拟计算得到结果:率定期27场洪水合格率为81.5%,平均确定性系数为0.809;验证期8场洪水合格率为75%达到乙级精度,平均确定性系数为0.76,达到乙级精度。模拟结果的分析表明,HEC-HMS模型适用于漓江流域上游且取得较好的模拟结果,可为漓江流域上游洪水作业预报提供参考。Flood disasters occur frequently in the upper reaches of Lijiang River Basin,which is one of the relatively serious river basins with frequent mountain flood disasters in Guangxi.Taking the upper reaches of Lijiang River ba⁃sin as research object,the rainfall-runoff process was simulated by HEC-HMS hydraulic modeling system,includ⁃ing calculating the precipitation loss by SCS-CN method,calculating the slope runoff by Snyder unit hydrograph method,simulating the base flow by regression curve method,routing the river flood by Muskingen method.Based on measured hydrological and meteorological data,27 flood events from 2008 to 2013 were used as floods of calibra⁃tion period and 8 flood events from 2014 to 2015 were used as floods of validation period.The results of rainfall runoff simulation include the 27 floods of calibration period have a pass rate of 81.5%and an average deterministic coefficient of 0.809;the 8 floods of validation period have a pass rate of 75%and an average deterministic coeffi⁃cient of 0.76 up to class B accuracy.Analysis of the simulation results demonstrate HEC-HMS model is suitable for the upper reaches of Li River Basin and has rendered good simulation results,and is able to provide reference for flood forecasting in the upper reaches of Lijiang River Basin.

关 键 词：洪水预报 漓江上游流域 HEC-HMS洪水预报模型 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]