NARMAX模型在海上风机风载荷预测的研究  

Research on NARMAX Model in Wind Load Prediction of Offshore Wind Turbine

作　　者：王立志 孔荷林 范菊[1,2] Wang Lizhi;Kong Helin;Fan Ju(State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Ship and Deep-Sea Exploration,Shanghai 200240,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室,上海200240 [2]高新船舶与深海开发装备协同创新中心,上海200240

出　　处：《水动力学研究与进展（A辑）》2023年第2期312-318,共7页Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51479117)。

摘　　要：海上风机是近期内最具开发潜力的新型风电技术,其在海上的气动载荷计算与预测对于风机系统耦合分析极其重要。该文以NREL-5MW风力机与塔架模型为研究对象,构建脉动风场,采用CFD方法对风力机的叶轮推力进行计算。对于不同平均风速下的风载荷预测,由高风速下脉动风速作为系统的输入,计算得到的叶轮推力作为系统的输出,根据NARMAX模型理论,系统识别后,以建立起的NARMAX系统模型用以预报其他不同脉动风下的风载荷。这给求解风机系统在各种实际风浪作用下的耦合运动分析提供了一种新思路。Offshore Wind Turbine is a new type of wind power technology with the most development potential in the near future.Its offshore aerodynamic load calculation and prediction are extremely important for the coupled analysis of wind turbine systems.In this paper,the NREL-5MW wind turbine and tower model is taken as the research object,a pulsating wind field is constructed,and CFD method is used to calculate the thrust of the wind turbine.For wind load prediction under different unsteady wind,the unsteady wind with high average speed is used as the input of the system,and the calculated turbine thrust is used as the output of the system.According to the NARMAX model theory,after the system is identified the NARMAX system model is established to predict wind loads under other different unsteady winds.This provides a new idea for solving the coupled motion analysis of the wind turbine system under various actual wind and waves.

关 键 词：海上风机 脉动风 风载荷 NARMAX模型 

分 类 号：P751[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]