基于非参数回归的江苏省用电量分析  

Analysis of Electricity Consumption in Jiangsu Province Based on Non-parametric Regression

作　　者：查志伟 ZHA Zhiwei(School of Mathematics and Science,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学数理学院,合肥230601

出　　处：《科技和产业》2023年第10期166-171,共6页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：安徽省高等学校科学研究重点项目(2022AH050247);安徽建筑大学科研项目(2016QD118)。

摘　　要：基于2000—2019年江苏省用电量和影响因素的数据,运用非参数回归方法探究了一维变量城镇人均住房面积与用电量的关系。结果表明非参数回归方法的拟合效果是很理想的。运用半参数回归模型探究了多维变量人口数量、人均GDP、城镇人均住房面积、农村人均住房面积与用电量的关系。结果表明,人口数量和人均GDP对于江苏省用电量具有显著的参数效应;城镇人均住房面积和农村人均住房面积对于江苏省用电量具有显著的非参数效应;两者之间具有交互作用。Based on the data of electricity consumption and influencing factors in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2019,the relationship between the one-dimensional variable urban housing area per capita and electricity consumption was firstly explored using a nonparametric regression method.The results show that the fitting effect of the nonparametric regression method was satisfactory.Then,the relationship between the multi-dimensional variable population size,GDP per capita,urban housing area per capita,rural housing area per capita and electricity consumption is investigated by using a semi-parametric regression model.The results show that the population size and GDP per capita have significant parametric effects on electricity consumption in Jiangsu Province;while housing area per capita in urban areas and housing area per capita in rural areas have significant non-parametric effects on electricity consumption in Jiangsu Province;and there is an interaction between them.

关 键 词：用电量 非参数回归 半参数回归 交互作用 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]