热带气旋近海加强机制的研究进展  

Research Progress on the Intensifying Mechanism of Coastal Tropical Cyclones

作　　者：王珍 黄泓 赵军[1] 王学忠 WANG Zhen;HUANG Hong;ZHAO Jun;WANG Xuezhong(College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学气象海洋学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《气象》2023年第5期525-541,共17页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42075053、41975128)共同资助。

摘　　要：近年来,热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)强度的预报技巧有所提高,但是在近海加强TC多发的年份,强度预报值较实况偏弱。围绕TC近海加强影响因素,从环境条件和动力机制对相关研究进行回顾,详细分析了环境大气、海洋强迫机制、内核结构变化以及螺旋云带水相变化等因子对TC近海加强的作用。这些因子共同作用于TC近海加强过程,对预报具有指示意义。通过总结研究成果的异同点,建立了TC近海加强影响因子模型,以期更好地为TC近海加强过程的业务预报提供理论参考。In recent years,the forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity has been improved.However,the intensity forecasting value is weaker in the years when TCs are frequently intensified over offshore waters.Focused on the factors affecting the intensified coastal TCs,this paper reviews the related research from two perspectives:environmental conditions and dynamic mechanism.Then a detailed analysis of the effects of environmental atmospheric,ocean forcing mechanisms,structural changes in the inner core and water phase change in spiral bands on the intensifying process of coastal TCs is performed.Such factors are good indicators for the forecasting of coastal TCs,and they act together in the TC intensifying process.Through comparing and summarizing relevant research results,a schematic model of impact factors is established in order to provide valuable reference for operational forecasting of the intensifying process of TCs over offshore waters.

关 键 词：近海热带气旋 加强过程 环境条件 动力机制 影响因子模型 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P433