基于层次分析法的地震灾害伤亡人员数量预测研究--以四川地震为例  

Research on Prediction of Earthquake Disaster Casualties Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process:A Case Study of Sichuan Earthquake

作　　者：罗宾生 李延峰[1] 白永祯 LUO Bin-sheng;LI Yan-feng;BAI Yong-zhen(Qinghai Earthquake Agency,Xining,Qinghai,810001)

机构地区：[1]青海省地震局,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《山西地震》2023年第2期37-40,共4页Earthquake Research in Shanxi

摘　　要：震后人员伤亡评估是防震减灾的一项重要工作。本文借助案例推理法预测2022年6月1日17时00分发生的四川雅安市芦山县6.1级地震与6月10日发生的四川阿坝马尔康5.8级地震后人员的伤亡情况,利用案例数据库中的案例特性信息,采用层次分析法计算特征属性的权重值,采用Euclidian距离将新生案例的特性与之进行相似性分析,得到芦山与马尔康地震案例的地震人员伤亡预测,发现预测值与实际结果基本吻合。根据计算结果,提出进一步提升预测模型准确度的相关建议。Post-earthquake casualty assessment is an important task in earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation.This study utilizes the case-based reasoning method to predict the casualties after a 6.1 magnitude earthquake in Lushan County,Ya'an City,Sichuan,which occurred on June 1,2022 at 17:00,and a 5.8 magnitude earthquake in Maerkang,Aba,Sichuan,which occurred on June 10.By utilizing limited case characteristic information from the case database,the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)is applied to calculate the weights of the feature attributes.The similarity between the characteristics of new cases and the existing cases is analyzed using Euclidean distance,and the predicted casualties for the Lushan and Maerkang earthquake cases are obtained,which are in good agreement with the actual results.Based on the calculation results,relevant recommendations are proposed to further improve the accuracy of the prediction model.

关 键 词：地震伤亡人员 案例推理 层次分析 数量预测 

分 类 号：P315.09[天文地球—地震学]