中部六省城市化对碳排放影响的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Urbanization on Carbon Emissions in Six Central Provinces

作　　者：孙克 况正钢 张信为 SUN Ke;KUANG Zhenggang;ZHANG Xinwei(School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University,Nanchang 330038,China)

机构地区：[1]江西科技师范大学经济管理学院,南昌330038

出　　处：《能源研究与管理》2023年第2期32-38,44,共8页Energy Research and Management

基　　金：江西省社会科学基金项目(21YJ09);江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ180762);江西科技师范大学教学改革课题(JGYB-19-100-27);江西科技师范大学研究生创新专项资金资助项目(YC2022-x03);江西科技师范大学博士科研启动基金项目(2019BSQD019)。

摘　　要：分析中部六省城市的城市化与碳排放关系可给中部城市的碳减排与城市发展提供参考。研究选取中国中部六省80个地级市的城市化和碳排放数据,分析中部地区城市化率和碳排放量的时空演变规律,进而构建STIRPAT模型,通过城市化过程中的各要素来分析城市化对碳排放量的影响。结果表明:大部分城市的城市化水平在不断提高,碳排放量也在增加,高城市化率和高碳排放量主要集中在省会城市和能源型城市;人口规模、人均GDP、第二产业比重对碳排放量的增加具有显著的促进作用,并且第二产业比重对碳排放的影响最大;能源消费强度与碳排放负相关,随着能源消费强度的增强,城市的碳排放量会减少;长期来看,城市化与碳排放呈现倒“U”型关系。因而对于一些省会城市和能源型城市需要控制人口、倡导节约和绿色消费、注重产业的转型和升级。Analyzing the relationship between urbanization and carbon emission in six cities in central China can provide reference for carbon emission reduction and urban development in central China.Based on the data of urbanization and carbon emissions of 80 prefecture-level cities in six provinces in central China,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution law of urbanization rate and carbon emissions in central China,and then constructs a STIRPAT model to analyze the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions through various factors in the process of urbanization.The results show that the urbanization level of most cities is constantly improving,and carbon emissions are also increasing.The high urbanization rate and high carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in provincial capital cities and energy-based cities.Population size,per capita GDP and the proportion of the secondary industry have a significant role in promoting the increase of carbon emissions,and the proportion of the secondary industry has the greatest impact on carbon emissions.The intensity of energy consumption is negatively related to carbon emissions.With the increase of energy consumption intensity,the carbon emissions of cities will decrease.In the long run,the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions is inverted"U".Therefore,for some provincial capital cities and energy-based cities,it is necessary to control population,advocate conservation and green consumption,and pay attention to industrial transformation and upgrading.

关 键 词：城市化 碳排放 面板数据 STIRPAT模型 中部地区 

分 类 号：TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]