基于FLUS模型的南昌市三生空间多情景模拟和生态效应演变研究  

Multi-scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space and analysis of its ecological environment effect in Nanchang City based on FLUS model

作　　者：胡隆 罗志军[1] 饶敏欣 HU Long;LUO Zhijun;RAO Minxin(College of Land Resources and Environment,Jiangxi Agricultural University,JiangXi Nanchang 330045,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院,江西南昌330045

出　　处：《上海国土资源》2023年第2期53-61,共9页Shanghai Land & Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41961042);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJAZH061);南昌市经济社会发展重大招标课题(ZDSK202206)。

摘　　要：以2000—2020年5期土地利用数据为基础,综合运用地统计分析、生态环境效应模型和FLUS模型,从用地转型角度定量分析研究南昌市过去及未来生态环境效应的阶段性时空变化特征,以期为南昌市未来城市发展提供科学参考。结果表明:2000—2020年南昌市用地结构大致表现为生态用地和生产用地不断缩减,生活用地持续扩张的态势;其间南昌市整体生态环境有所恶化,生态环境质量指数由2000年的0.4600减至2020年的0.4349,低和较低质量区面积有所扩大。以惯性发展、耕地保护、生态保护3种不同侧重的情景模拟,预测南昌市2035年“三生空间”:惯性发展情景下生活空间扩张态势显著,耕地保护情景下生产空间面积出现了唯一涨幅,生态保护情景下生态空间也呈现出唯一的上升趋势;惯性发展情景下的生态环境质量与历史土地利用变化产生的生态环境效应变化态势保持一致,恶化程度继续加深,耕地保护情景和生态控制情景下生态质量有所改善。由此建议:南昌市未来发展中,生态控制和耕地保护等政策的推进应注重对建设用地扩张的约束管控,重视盘活存量建设用地,优化国土空间用地结构和布局,以达到在保障经济快速发展、社会稳定进步的同时实现山水协调、粮食安全不受威胁的发展目标。Based on the five periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020,this study comprehensively used land statistics analysis,the eco-environmental effect model,and the FLUS model to quantitatively analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of past and future eco-environmental effects in Nanchang City from the perspective of land use transition.The results showed that:(1)the land use structure of Nanchang City from 2000 to 2020 had a trend of continuous reduction of ecological land and production land and a continuous expansion of living land;(2)from 2000 to 2020,the overall ecological environment of Nanchang City deteriorated,the ecological environment quality index decreased from 0.4600 in 2000 to 0.4349 in 2020,and the areas of low-and low-quality areas expanded;(3)under the three scenarios,there are significant differences in the prediction results of“production-living-ecological space”in Nanchang in 2035.Under the inertial development scenario,the expansion of living spaces is significant.Under the cultivated land protection scenario,the production space area showed a unique increase.Under the ecological protection scenario,the ecological space also showed a unique upward trend.Under all three scenarios,the ecological environmental quality under the inertial development scenario was consistent with the ecological environmental effects caused by historical land use change,and the degree of deterioration continued to deepen.Ecological quality improved under the cultivated land protection and ecological control scenarios.The future development of ecological control and cultivated land protection policy of advancing in Nanchang,for the constraints of construction land expansion control and revitalization of the stock of land for construction purposes,the optimization of national spatial land use structure and layout,to realize rapid economic development,social stability and progress of achieving a coordinated landscape at the same time,the development goal of food security is not threatened.

关 键 词：三生空间 土地利用模拟 生态环境效应 FLUS模型 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]