基于“双碳”目标的盐城市生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断  

Ecological security assessment and obstacle factor diagnosis of Yancheng City based on“double carbon”target

作　　者：丁海燕 何华春[3] 张云峰[1,2] DING Haiyan;HE Huachun;ZHANG Yunfeng(School of Urban and Planning,Yancheng Teachers University,Jiangsu Yancheng 224007,China;North Jiangsu Research Institute of Agricultural and Rural Modernization,Yancheng Teachers University,Jiangsu Yancheng 224007,China;School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Jiangsu Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]盐城师范学院城市与规划学院,江苏·盐城224007 [2]盐城师范学院苏北农业农村现代化研究院,江苏·盐城224007 [3]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏·南京210023

出　　处：《上海国土资源》2023年第2期62-68,75,共8页Shanghai Land & Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41501003);盐城市市政府社科奖励基金(23skA178);盐城师范学院校级自然科研项目(206420004);盐城市自然科学软课题“盐城市发展绿色宜居之城的路径和措施研究”。

摘　　要：“双碳”战略的实施为统筹推进生态保护、环境治理和资源循环节约利用工作提供了新的目标,“双碳”目标下生态安全研究是学术界和社会关注的热点。本文选择能较为全面并契合实际地反映盐城市生态安全的指标,根据各指标对提升生态安全和减排降碳的贡献,确定其性质,利用PSR模型,对盐城市2013—2021年的生态安全进行评价,并利用障碍度模型对影响盐城市生态安全、阻碍“双碳”目标实现的主要障碍因子进行了诊断。结果表明:盐城市2013—2021年生态安全综合指数整体呈下降趋势,安全等级由2013—2016年的“临界安全”降为2017—2019年的“较不安全”,2020—2021年又缓慢上升到“临界安全”,未来五年将继续缓慢下降;需要加大提升生态安全的力度,降低主要障碍因子的障碍作用;城市化率、第一产业占GDP的比重、医院床位数、农业机械总动力、全社会民用私人汽车五个因子不仅障碍度总和较高,还呈上升趋势,成为近些年影响盐城市生态安全、阻碍“双碳”目标实现的主要障碍因子。The proposal and implementation of the“double carbon”strategy provides a new starting point for the coordinated promotion of ecological protection,environmental governance,and resource recycling and utilization of its preservation.In this study,indicators that reflect Yancheng’s ecological security in a more comprehensive manner and which fit reality were selected,and their properties were determined according to the contribution of each indicator to improving ecological security and reducing carbon emissions.The PSR model was used to evaluate the ecological security of Yancheng from 2013 to 2021,and the obstacle degree model was used.The main obstacles were identified that affect the ecological security of Yancheng City and hinder the realization of the"double carbon"goal.The results showed that,the overall ecological security index of Yancheng City from 2013 to 2021 had a downward trend,and the security level of Yancheng City decreased from“critical security”during 2013-2016 to“relatively unsafe”during 2017-2019,and then slowly rose to“critical security”during 2020-2021.Over the next five years,it will continue to decline slowly.Efforts must be strengthened to improve ecological security and reduce the roles of major obstacles.The urbanization rate,proportion of the primary industry in GDP,number of beds,and total power of agricultural machinery and civil private cars in society not only have a high obstacle degree but also an increasing trend.This has become the main obstacle affecting the ecological security of Yancheng City in recent years.

关 键 词：生态安全 障碍因子 “双碳”目标 PSR模型 

分 类 号：F293.1[经济管理—国民经济]