基于野外实地调查的北京宋庄地裂缝经济损失评估  

Economic loss assessment of ground fissures in Songzhuang,Beijing based on field investigation

作　　者：赵晨曦 陈柘舟 刘建凯 周丽苹 刘明坤 ZHAO Chenxi;CHEN Zhezhou;LIU Jiankai;ZHOU Liping;LIU Mingkun(l.Beijing Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring,Beijing 100195,China;Urban Groundwater Safety Prevention and Control Technology Innovation Base,Beijing 100195,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市地质环境监测所,北京100195 [2]城市地下水安全防控技术创新基地,北京100195

出　　处：《上海国土资源》2023年第2期113-118,共6页Shanghai Land & Resources

基　　金：中国地质调查局地质调查项目(11000023T000002035360)。

摘　　要：北京平原区地裂缝隐蔽性高、致灾性强,一旦发生就会造成极大的经济损失及环境破坏,但目前针对地裂缝造成的具体经济损失研究较少且不够成熟和完善。本研究选取宋庄地裂缝(双埠头村—大庞村段)作为研究区,利用2016年和2022年地裂缝野外实地调查获得的受灾体数量和受损程度数据,结合2018年房屋鉴定资料,首次建立针对地裂缝灾害的直接经济损失评估模型并对现状损失和预测损失进行定量评价。结果显示,该段地裂缝造成的受灾体破坏以民房类建筑类为主,2016—2022年6年间受灾体数量增长高达137.26%。截至2016年、2018年和2022年造成的现状直接经济损失总值分别为4623.24万元、7033.49万元和10751.14万元,年均增长量约1021.32万元/年。预测至2025年和2035年该地区地裂缝灾害造成的直接经济损总值分别约为1.5亿元和4.1亿元。本研究初步探索确定了地裂缝灾害直接经济损失的评估方法,具有一定的普遍适用性,为缓变型地质灾害的损失评价提供基础支撑。Ground fissures on the Beijing Plain are highly concealed and displaced,causing significant economic losses and environmental damage.However,there have been few evaluations of the economic losses caused by ground fissures.In this study,the Songzhuang ground fracture(Shuangbutou Village–Dapang Village section)was selected as the research area and combined with the field investigation of ground fracture data in 2016 and 2022,as well as the housing appraisal data in 2018.A direct economic loss evaluation model for ground fracture disasters was established for the first time,and the current and predicted losses were quantitatively evaluated.According to the statistical analysis,the damage caused by ground fractures in this section was mainly to civil buildings,and the number of disaster-affected objects increased by 137.26%during the six years(2016-2022).By the end of 2016,2018 and 2022,the total value of direct economic losses due to disasters was 46.23 million yuan,70.33 million yuan and 107.51 million yuan,respectively,with an average annual growth of approximately 10.21 million yuan per year.The total direct economic losses in the region are expected to be approximately 150 million yuan and 410 million yuan by 2025 and 2035,respectively.

关 键 词：地裂缝 直接损失评估 现状损失 预测损失 

分 类 号：P642.26[天文地球—工程地质学]