“稳房价”与“调结构”双重目标下的房价调控政策研究  

Housing Price Control Policy under the Dual Objectives of"Stabilizing Housing Price"and"Improving Macroeconomic Structure"

作　　者：赵扶扬 梅冬州[2] ZHAO Fuyang;MEI Dongzhou(Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京市100081 [2]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2023年第3期1226-1244,共19页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003211);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073149);国家社科基金重大项目(22&ZD131);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于DSGE范式发现房价波动会导致宏观经济的结构性波动,金融摩擦和土地用途分割在传导机制中扮演关键作用。因此,房价调控政策应兼顾平抑房价和调节宏观经济结构双重目标。本文对比了六种房地产调控政策,研究发现:需求侧调控能较好地矫正经济结构但会抑制福利,供给侧调控可提高福利但需要较多投入,政策间的协调搭配是必要的;短期增加商品房供应反而会刺激投资性购房行为,导致更强扭曲效应,提高无产权保障性住房的供给可克服供给侧政策的两难困境。Housing price control policies should take into account the dual goals of stabilizing housing prices and improving the macroeconomic structure.This article compares six different housing price control policies,and draws the following conclusions.(a)Demand-side policies are suitable to improve economic structure,but tend to suppress welfare;supply-side policies could improve welfare,but require more input.(b)A short-term land supply would increase households'investment in housing,resulting in a stronger macroeconomic distortion effect;increasing the supply of indemnificatory housing may be the solution for the dilemma.(3)Housing price controls may threaten the sustainability of local finances.

关 键 词：房地产的挤出效应 宏观经济结构性波动 房价调控政策 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]