“一带一路”倡议与债务陷阱论:来自南亚东南亚国家负债率的证据  

The“Belt and Road”Initiative and Debt Trap Theory:Evidence from Debt Ratios of South Asian and Southeast Asian Countries

作　　者：徐杰[1] 张琳 周婧 米文红 XU Jie;ZHANG Lin;ZHOU Jing;MI Wenhong(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500;Asset Management Department,Kunming Medical University,Kunming 650500)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650500 [2]昆明医科大学资产管理处,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《昆明理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第3期184-195,共12页Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(14BTJ013);云南省科技厅科技计划项目(202101AY070001-055)。

摘　　要：客观准确评价“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家债务水平的影响效应,是当前国内外学术界关注的焦点.然而,既有研究主要采用定性分析方法,对债务陷阱论具有直接说服力的实证检验仍不足.鉴于此,本文以债务陷阱论重点炒作的南亚东南亚国家为研究对象,运用配对样本T检验法验证了2013年以来沿线国家负债率确实显著提升,进一步基于倾向得分匹配的双重差分法对“一带一路”倡议与南亚东南亚国家债务水平的关系进行实证检验,发现“一带一路”倡议的实施并未显著提升其国家负债率,且结论通过了一系列稳健性检验,从而有力反驳了债务陷阱论这一伪命题.The objective and accurate evaluation of the impact of the“Belt and Road”Initiative on the debt levels of the countries along the route is a focus of attention in the academic circles at home and abroad.However,existing research mainly uses qualitative analysis methods,and there is still a lack of empirical tests that directly substantiate the debt trap theory.In light of this,the paper takes South Asian and Southeast Asian countries,which are heavily hyped by the debt trap theory,as the research objects.It uses paired-sample T-tests to verify that the debt ratios of the countries along the route have indeed significantly increased since 2013.Further,based on the propensity score matching difference-in-differences method,it empirically tests the relationship between the“Belt and Road”Initiative and the debt levels of South Asian and Southeast Asian countries.It found that the implementation of the“Belt and Road”Initiative did not significantly increase their national debt ratios,and the conclusion passed a series of robustness tests,thereby forcefully refuting the pseudo-proposition of the debt trap theory.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 债务陷阱论 国家负债率 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F811.5