基于大数据与双积分政策的产品规划  

Product Planning Based on Big Data and Double Points Policy

作　　者：薛海涛 包辛煜 XUE Haitao;BAO Xinyu(College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学机械与运载工程学院,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《汽车实用技术》2023年第12期196-202,共7页Automobile Applied Technology

摘　　要：在整个汽车生态系统研究中,政策对于产品规划影响巨大,车企发展的基准依托于国家政策,任何车企要想健康长久地发展,离不开国家政策的支持,因此,研究政策因素对于未来车企的发展规划具有重要的意义,但是在传统的新能源汽车产品规划中,并没有考虑政策因素的影响,因此,文章基于大数据的角度并结合国家双积分政策开展了研究,实现了从政策角度构建利润模型,进而提出未来的产品规划意见。首先利用灰色时间序列函数模型对汽车销量及产量进行预测;其次结合预测数据及国家有关于双积分政策的相关规定建立新能源汽车双积分政策补贴利润模型;最后选取上汽通用五菱的代表车型五菱宏光MiniEV进行案例分析,并依据利润模型对五菱未来新能源汽车产品提出规划意见。通过案例分析验证了该模型的适用性,具有一定的实用意义。Across the entire automotive ecosystem,policy has a huge impact on product planning.The benchmark for the development of vehicle companies relies on national policies.If any vehicle company wants to develop healthily and long-term,it is inseparable from the support of national policies.Therefore,the study of policy factors is of great significance for the development planning of future car companies.However,in traditional new energy vehicle product planning,the impact of policy factors is not considered.Therefore,this paper conducts research based on the perspective of big data and combine with the national double-point policy,realizes the construction of a profit model from a policy perspective,and then puts forward future product planning opinions.Firstly,use the grey time series function model to forecast the sales and production of vehicles;Secondly,combine with the forecast data and the relevant national regulations on the double-point policy,establish a new energy vehicle double-point policy subsidy profit model;Finally,the representative model of SAIC-GM-Wuling Wuling Hongguang Mini EV is selected for case analysis,and based on the profit model,it puts forward planning opinions on Wuling's future new energy vehicle products.The applicability of the model is verified by case analysis,which has certain practical significance.

关 键 词：大数据 双积分政策 灰色时间序列函数 政策补贴利润模型 产品规划 

分 类 号：U461.99[机械工程—车辆工程] F542[交通运输工程—载运工具运用工程]