结缔组织病合并间质性肺疾病风险预测模型的构建  

Construction of a Risk Prediction Model for Connective Tissue Disease Complicated with Interstitial Lung Disease

作　　者：李子锋 尹龙[1] 侯晓强[1] 常彩云[1] 雷云宏[1] Li Zifeng;Yin Long;Hou Xiaoqiang;Chang Caiyun;Lei Yunhong(Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Yichang Central People's Hospital,The First College of Clinical Medical Science,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443003,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学第一临床医学院[宜昌市中心人民医院]中医科,湖北宜昌443003

出　　处：《巴楚医学》2023年第2期25-30,共6页Bachu Medical Journal

基　　金：湖北省卫生健康委中医药科研项目(No:ZY2019F040)。

摘　　要：目的:探讨结缔组织病(CTD)合并间质性肺疾病(ILD)的危险因素并建立预测模型。方法:收集2021年1月-2021年6月宜昌市中心人民医院风湿免疫科收治的42名CTD-ILD患者与60名CTD患者的相关资料,比较两组的一般资料、临床症状与实验室指标,采用Logistic回归分析建立预测模型与列线图,并根据受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)验证模型拟合效果。结果:单因素分析结果显示,两组吸烟、病程、雷诺现象、类风湿因子与白介素-6(IL-6)比较,差异有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。多因素二元Logistic回归模型分析发现,吸烟、病程增加与IL-6升高是并发ILD的危险因素。预测模型为:logit(p)=ln(p/1-p)=-3.874+1.879×吸烟+0.372×病程+0.05×IL-6,ROC曲线分析该模型的曲线下面积为0.896。结论:吸烟、病程延长及IL-6升高是CTD并发ILD的危险因素,根据其构建的风险预测模型具有良好的预测效果。Objective:To explore the risk factors of connective tissue disease(CTD)complicated with interstitial lung disease(ILD),and establish the prediction model.Methods:There were 42 patients diagnosed with CTD-ILD and 60 patients diagnosed with CTD admitted to Yichang Central People's Hospital from January 2021 to June 2021 were retrospectively analyzed.The general data,clinical symptoms and laboratory indicators of the two groups were compared.The predictive model and nomogram were established on the basis of Logistic regression analysis.The model fitting effect was verified using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results:The results of univariate analysis suggested that there were statistically significant differences in smoking,disease duration,reynolds phenomenon,rheumatoid factor and interleukin-6(IL-6)between the two groups(all P<0.05).Multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis indicated that smoking,increased course of disease and elevated IL-6 were risk factors for ILD.The prediction model was as follows:logit(p)=ln(p/1-p)=-3.874+1.879×smoking+0.372×disease duration+0.05×IL-6,with the area under the ROC curve of 0.896.Conclusion:Smoking,increased course of disease and elevated IL-6 were risk factors of CTD complicated with ILD,and the risk prediction model showed good prediction effect.

关 键 词：结缔组织病 间质性肺病 危险因素 预测模型 

分 类 号：R563[医药卫生—呼吸系统]