财政扩张、金融稳定与“双支柱”调控框架  

Fiscal Expansion,Financial Stability and“Two-pillar”Regulatory Framework

作　　者：李书 刘子玉 丁一[3] Li Shu;Liu Ziyu;Ding Yi(School of Economics and Management,Changchun University of Science and Technology,Changchun,130022,China;School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou,510006,China;School of Finance,Jilin University of Finance and Economics,Changchun,130117,China)

机构地区：[1]长春理工大学经济管理学院,吉林长春130022 [2]广州大学经济与统计学院,广东广州510006 [3]吉林财经大学金融学院,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2023年第2期126-143,共18页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“金融中介视角下‘双支柱’政策有效性检验与协调机制研究”(20CJY003)的资助。

摘　　要：本文构建政府债务与银行资产关联的DSGE模型,并在此框架下分析积极财政政策对经济系统的影响以及财政政策、货币政策与宏观审慎政策之间的协调配合机制。研究结果表明:(1)积极的财政政策能够有效实现逆周期调控,但政府债务扩张会通过银行资产渠道扩散至金融市场,增强金融体系的脆弱性;(2)“双支柱”调控框架可以有效缓解积极财政政策带来的金融压力,央行通过调控商业银行资本充足率能够合理抵消政府债务扩张导致的信贷紧缩;(3)无论是在经济扩张期还是在紧缩期,财政与“双支柱”政策协同实施是目前最占优的政策组合,三者之间的协调配合在平抑经济波动与防控金融风险方面均体现出显著优势,且能够以最小福利损失保障经济稳定运行。This paper constructs the DSGE model of the correlation between government debt and bank assets,and comprehensively analyzes the impact of proactive fiscal policy on the economic system and the coordination mechanism among fiscal policy,monetary policy and macro-prudential policy under this framework.The results show that:(1)Proactive fiscal policy can effectively realize counter-cyclical regulation,but government debt expansion may spread to financial market through bank asset channel,increasing the fragility of the financial system.(2)The“two-pillar”regulatory framework can effectively restrain financial pressure caused by proactive fiscal policies.The central bank can reasonably offset the credit crunch caused by the expansion of government debt by regulating the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks.(3)The coordinated implementation of fiscal and“two-pillar”policies is the most favorable policy combination at present during periods of expansion and contraction.The coordination among the three has significant advantages in suppressing economic fluctuations and preventing financial risks,and can guarantee the stable operation of the economy with the minimum welfare loss.

关 键 词：财政政策 货币政策 宏观审慎政策 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学]