基于正态分布法确定阈值的会计舞弊风险指数构建和评价研究  

Research on the Construction and Evaluation of Accounting Fraud Risk Index Based on the Threshold Determined by Normal Distribution

作　　者：李清[1] 李烁[1] Li Qing;Li Shuo(School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学与管理学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2023年第2期144-163,共20页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“上市公司会计舞弊风险指数构建、预警及影响因素研究”(18BGL067)的资助。

摘　　要：为了识别会计舞弊,本文构建了会计舞弊风险指数模型,模型研究的重点和难点是识别指标体系的构建和舞弊阈值的确定。基于舞弊手段选取了24个指标,借鉴医学参考值的确定方法,首次使用我国上市公司舞弊发生概率1.129%、标准正态分布和标准分数等统计方法确定了舞弊阈值为2.28,以3023家沪深A股上市公司2017年年报数据为样本,构建了舞弊风险指数,并进行了指数排序和评价研究,使隐性的舞弊风险一目了然。结果显示:有34.5%的公司指标值异常,超过了阈值,存在舞弊风险;指数最高为97.7810;分别按照行业、地区、板块、实际控制人、是否由四大所审计、年报是否为标准无保留意见,对公司进行分类检验,指数均值差异均显著。指数模型是报表舞弊的有力识别工具。In order to identify accounting fraud,this paper constructs the risk index model of accounting fraud.The emphasis and difficulty of model research is to establish the identification index system and determine the fraud threshold.In terms of index system construction,this paper selects 24 indicators to identify corporate fraud based on fraud means,and uses the determination method of medical reference ranges for reference to determine the fraud probability of listed companies in China for the first time.The probability of fraud in listed companies in China is 1.129%,and the fraud threshold is determined as 2.28 by using statistical methods such as standard normal distribution and standard fraction.In terms of sample selection,this paper takes the 2017 annual report data of 3023 Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies as samples to construct the fraud risk index,and conducts index ranking and evaluation research to make the hidden fraud risk at a glance in the paper.The results show that 34.5%of the companies’index are abnormal,beyond the threshold value,and there is a risk of fraud;the highest index is 97.7810.In addition,the fraud risk index is classified and tested from six different dimensions:industry,region,sector,actual controller,whether it is audited by the four major firms,and whether the annual report is standard without reservation,the outcomes show that the fraud risk index has mean difference.The index model is a powerful tool for identifying fraudulent statements.

关 键 词：会计舞弊风险指数 标准正态分布 标准分数 阈值 

分 类 号：F239.1[经济管理—会计学]