河北省流行性腮腺炎不同发病指标时间序列比较分析  

Compared time-series analysis for different epidemic indexes of mumps in Hebei Province

作　　者：刘曙光[1] 张俊棉[1] 张富斌[1] 刘大鹏 刘鹏 梁震 王鹏 LIU Shuguang;ZHANG Junmian;ZHANG Fubin;LIU Dapeng;LIU Peng;LIANG Zhen;WANG Peng(Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]河北省疾病预防控制中心,石家庄050021 [2]世窗信息股份有限公司

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2023年第5期474-477,共4页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：河北省卫生健康委员会(ZL20210353)。

摘　　要：目的对河北省流行性腮腺炎(简称“流腮”)病例数据的不同发病指标进行时间序列分析,选择更科学合理的模型为制定控制流腮疫情措施提供依据。方法使用河北省2004—2020年流腮病例数据建立发病数和发病率2种指标的季节自回归滑动平均(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average,SARIMA)模型,并对2个模型进行选择和流腮疫情预测。结果最终通过检验的流腮发病数优选模型是SARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12,流腮发病率优选模型是SARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12;2个模型的预测评价结果显示2个模型的预测误差均较低;2个序列模型的预测值差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=22.93,P<0.01)。本文选择发病率模型,流腮病例数据实际值均落在预测值的95%可信范围,预测河北省2021年1月流腮发病率为0.26/10万,与往年同期流腮发病趋势一致。结论发病率序列的SARIMA模型在对河北省往年流腮疫情趋势信息利用时不失真,更加科学合理,为流腮疫情控制提供更加准确的预测依据。Objective To analyze the different epidemic indexes of mumps by time-series method in Hebei Province,and to choose the more scientific and reasonable model for the purpose of providing evidence to formulate the measures to prevent and control the disease.Methods The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model of the number of cases and incidence of mumples in Hebei Province from 2004 to 2020 was established.The two models were selected and the mumps epidemic was predicted.Results SARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and SARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 were the preferred models for the number of mumps cases and the incidence of mumps.The prediction evaluation results of the two models showed that the prediction errors of the two models were low.The predictive values of the two sequence models were statistically significant difference(χ^(2)=22.93,P<0.01).In this paper,the actual value of the incidence model and mumps case data both fell within the 95%confidence range of the predicted value,and the predicted incidence of mumps in January 2021 in Hebei Province was 0.26/100000,which was consistent with the trend of the incidence of mumps in the same period of previous years.Conclusion The SARIMA model of incidence series has no distortion in the use of information on the epidemic trend of mumps in Hebei Province in previous years,which is more scientific and reasonable,and can provide more accurate prediction basis for the control of mumps epidemics.

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 扩大免疫规划 时间序列 SARIMA 预测 分析 

分 类 号：R373.16[医药卫生—病原生物学]