基于WRF-Solar模式和SCA订正的短期辐照度预报研究  

RESEARCH ON SHORT-TERM IRRADIANCE PREDICTION BASED ON WRF-SOLAR MODEL AND SCA CORRECTION

作　　者：商永朋 郭军红 宋煜 刘文娇 马文静 李薇 Shang Yongpeng;Guo Junhong;Song Yu;Liu Wenjiao;Ma Wenjing;Li Wei(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102200,China;National Energy Group Technical and Economic Research Institute,Beijing 102200,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学环境科学与工程学院,北京102200 [2]国家能源集团技术经济研究院,北京102200

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2023年第5期274-279,共6页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0208400)。

摘　　要：基于WRF-Solar模式输出的逐时气象因子,针对不同天气类型,结合逐步聚类分析方法(SCA)对逐时辐照度进行模拟和预报。结果显示,结合SCA订正方法大幅减少WRF-Solar的误差,在晴天和晴转多云(多云转晴)天气类型下模拟结果较好。在阴雨天气类型下改进明显,相对误差和均方根误差从64.03%和78.02%降至24.71%和38.02%。结果表明,结合SCA订正方法能够降低WRF-Solar由于天气的随机性及突变性引起的误差,能很好地模拟出逐时辐照度的变化趋势。In this paper,combined with coupled stepwise clustering analysis(SCA),the real time irradiance of different weather types was simulated and predicted based on the hourly weather factor output from the WRF-Solar model.It is indicated that the combination of the SCA revised coupling model greatly reduces the error of WRF-Solar,and the simulation results are better on sunny days and sunny to cloudy days(cloudy to sunny days).The improvement is particularly obvious in rainy weather,with the relative error reduced from 64.03%to 24.71%and the root mean square error reduced from 78.02%to 38.02%.It suggests that the coupled model combined with the SCA revision method can reduce the error of WRF-Solar caused by the randomness and mutation of weather,and can simulate the trend of hourly irradiance magnificently.

关 键 词：气象预报 逐步聚类分析方法 辐照度 WRF-Solar 气象因子 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]