基于人口承载力的城市群适度人口预测研究——以长江三角洲城市群为例  

A Study on the Prediction of Moderate Population Size of Urban Agglomerations Based on Population Carrying Capacity——Take the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration as an Example

作　　者：孙玉环[1] 张冬雪 丁娇 SUN Yu-huan;ZHANG Dong-xue;DING Jiao(Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学统计学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《人口与发展》2023年第3期49-59,95,共12页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于投入产出技术的长江经济带省域生态补偿研究”(18ZDA126)。

摘　　要：以2009-2020年长江三角洲城市群为研究对象,通过构建多目标评价体系,综合运用耦合协调度模型、情景分析法、GM-BiLSTM神经网络等方法对城市群人口承载力展开预测,并以所测算的人口承载力作为基础,对2030年城市群适度人口规模进行科学预测。研究结果表明:(1)从长江三角洲城市群整体来看,2030年城市群常住人口规模约为17998.592万人,适度人口规模约为16158.401万人,常住人口规模超过适度人口规模,城市群人口仍然相对过多。(2)从各系统承载人口来看,城市群2030年经济系统可承载人口最高,约为27715.323万人;资源系统可承载人口最少,约为7151.659万人,资源成为制约城市群未来人口发展的关键因素。(3)2030年长江三角洲城市群内各城市人口发展状态可划分为拥挤型、稠密型、分散型三类。拥挤型城市人口密度大,人口过度集中且适度人口远超可承载人口规模;稠密型城市人口密度较大,人口较为集中,即使部分城市适度人口规模超出最大人口承载力,但是缺口处于可控制范围内;分散型城市人口密度较小,人口扩散程度高,除镇江外的所有城市适度人口规模在最大可承载人口规模以内。Taking 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2009 to 2020 as the research objects,a multi-objective evaluation system was constructed,and the population carrying capacity of urban agglomeration was predicted by coupling coordination model,scenario analysis and GM-BiLSTM neural network.Based on the predicted population carrying capacity,the moderate population size of the urban agglomeration in 2030 is predicted.The findings suggest:(1)From the overall perspective of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,the permanent population of the urban agglomeration in 2030 is about 179.98592 million people,and the moderate population size is about 161.58401 million people,the permanent population size exceeds the moderate population size,and the urban agglomeration population is stil relatively excessive.(2)From the perspective of the population carried by each system,the urban agglomeration has the highest population that can be carried by the economic system in 2030,about 277.15323 million people;the resource system can carry the least population,about 71.51659 million people,and resources have become the key factor restricting the future population development of urban agglomerations.(3)In 2030,the population development status of each city in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration can be divided into three categories:crowded,dense and decentralized.Crowded cities have a high population density,over-concentrated population and a moderate population that far exceeds the size of the population that can bear it;Densely populated cities,with large population density and relatively concentrated population,even if the moderate population size of some cities exceeds the maximum population carrying capacity,but the gap is within the controllable range;The population density of decentralized cities is small,the degree of population diffusion is high,the moderate population size of all cities except Zhenjiang is within the maximum bearable population size.

关 键 词：多目标评价体系 情景分析 GM-BiLSTM神经网络 动态适度人口预测 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]