珠江河口磨刀门水道枯季咸潮预报模型研究  

Prediction model of saltwater intrusion during dry seasons in the Modaomen Waterway of Pearl River Estuary

作　　者：林中源 黄鹏飞 吕超寅 史海匀 邹华志 LIN Zhongyuan;HUANG Pengfei;LYU Chaoyin;SHI Haiyun;ZOU Huazhi(Key Laboratory of Pearl River Estuary Regulation and Protection of Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611;Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute,Guangzhou 510611;Xijiang River Basin Administration of Guangdong Province,Zhuhai 519090;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518000)

机构地区：[1]水利部珠江河口治理与保护重点实验室,广州510611 [2]珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广州510611 [3]广东省西江流域管理局,珠海519090 [4]南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院,深圳518000

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2023年第6期20-24,共5页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(2023-01);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022005)。

摘　　要：在气候变化和人类活动影响下,珠江口磨刀门水道咸潮上溯日趋严峻,严重威胁中国澳门、珠海和中山3地供水安全。基于2021—2022年枯水期数据,采用多元非线性回归方法,建立了磨刀门水道平岗泵站日均含氯度及日超标时间的咸潮预报模型。结果表明,平岗泵站日均含氯度时间变化与三灶站日最大潮差、梧州和石角径流间的时滞均为3 d,且均呈负相关关系。综合考虑潮汐、径流、前期盐度累积效应,平岗泵站日均含氯度拟合优度r2为0.85。日超标时间与日均含氯度呈幂函数关系,拟合优度r2为0.93。该咸潮预报模型具有较高的精度,可为区域咸潮防控提供科学参考。Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the saltwater intrusion of Modaomen Waterway in the Pearl River Estuary has become increasingly severe,posing a serious threat to the safety of water supply in Macao,Zhuhai and Zhongshan.Based on the data of the dry season from 2021 to 2022,the prediction model of the daily mean chlorinity and the daily exceeding time of saltwater intrusion in the Pinggang pump Station of Modaomen Waterway is established by using multivariate nonlinear regression method.The results show that the daily mean chlorinity of Pinggang Station is negatively correlated with the daily maximum tidal range of Sanzao Station and the river discharge of Wuzhou and Shijiao Station,and the lag time is 3 days.Considering the cumulative effect of tide,runoff and early salinity,the goodness of fit r2 of the average daily mean chlorinity at Pinggang Station is 0.85.The relationship between the daily exceedance time and the daily mean chlorinity show the relationship of power function,and the goodness of fit r2 is 0.93.The prediction model has high accuracy and can provide scientific reference for regional saltwater intrusion prevention and control.

关 键 词：磨刀门水道 咸潮预报 滞后时间 前期盐度累积效应 

分 类 号：P731.12[天文地球—海洋科学]