基于信息扩散理论的干旱风险分析  

Analysis of drought risk based on the information diffusion theory

作　　者：肖许沐[1] 孔兰[2] XIAO Xumu;KONG Lan(China Water Resources Pearl River Planning Surveying and Designing Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510610;Center for Water Ecological Engineering,Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510610)

机构地区：[1]中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广州510610 [2]水利部珠江水利委员会水生态工程中心,广州510610

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2023年第6期80-82,共3页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：水资源节约与保护专项资金项目(20220092)。

摘　　要：利用信息扩散风险分析模型计算了珠江流域南盘江上游的干旱风险率,对南盘江上游的干旱灾害风险变化特征进行了定量化分析。结果显示:(1)南盘江上游地区干旱风险有明显增加趋势,1994—2010年干旱风险率均值比1956—1993年干旱风险率均值增加21%,增加幅度较明显;(2)南盘江上游地区干旱风险率存在明显的年代际变化,20世纪90年代、21世纪00年代干旱风险率较高,20世纪70年代、80年代干旱风险率较低;(3)南盘江上游地区干旱风险受气候变化影响的同时,也受人类活动影响。In this paper,the drought risk rates in the upper reach of the NanPanjiang River in the Pearl River Basin were calculated using the information diffusion risk model,and the characteristics of drought risk in thesame reachr are analyzed quantitatively.The results shows:①The average drought risk rate increase obviously on the upper reach of the NanPanjiang River Basin,which from 1994 to 2010 is 21%higher than that of 1956-1993;②in the upper reaches of the NanPanjiang River,there are significant interdecadal variations of the drought risk rate;the drought risk rate is higher in the 1990s and 2000s,and the drought risk rate is lower in the 1970s and 1980s;③The drought risk in the reach is not only affected by climate change,but also by human activities.

关 键 词：信息扩散理论 干旱风险 南盘江 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]