基于LOADEST模型和M K检验的淮河入洪泽湖氮磷污染通量分析  

Analysis of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Pollution Flux from Huai River into Hongze Lake Based on LOADEST Model and M-K Test

作　　者：孟凡鈞 高月香 许广东[3] 张毅敏 陈婷 毛晓文[4] 陈菁[1] 金有杰[5] MENG Fan-jun;GAO Yue-xiang;XU Guang-dong;ZHANG Yi-min;CHEN Ting;MAO Xiao-wen;CHEN Jing;JIN You-jie(College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211106,China;Nanjing Institute of Environmental Science,MEE,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210042,China;Jiangsu Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Suqian Branch,Suqian,Jiangsu 223899,China;Jiangsu Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210011,China;Nanjing Research Institute of Hydrology and Water Conservation Automation,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210012,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学农业科学与工程学院,江苏南京211106 [2]生态环境部南京环境科学研究所,江苏南京210042 [3]江苏省水文水资源勘测局宿迁分局,江苏宿迁223899 [4]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210011 [5]水利部南京水利水文自动化研究所,江苏南京210012

出　　处：《环境监测管理与技术》2023年第3期17-22,共6页The Administration and Technique of Environmental Monitoring

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“基于全耦合模型的城市生态环境多尺度监测技术研究”基金资助项目(2019YFB2102003);2021年江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划基金资助项目(SJCX21_0211)。

摘　　要：基于2015-2020年淮河入洪泽湖断面的水文水质数据,利用LOADEST模型建立污染物通量与河流流量之间的统计回归模型,并估算淮河入洪泽湖总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)污染物通量。结果表明,2005-2020年间淮河TN、TP年平均输移通量分别为(4730.14±1893.32)t、(257.56±108.53)t;受流量变幅影响,TN、TP输移通量与河流流量均呈极显著性相关关系(p<0.01)。采用M K检验分析发现,研究期间淮河TN和TP的输移通量总体上呈下降趋势,2018年12月后受入湖水量与氮磷浓度双重影响氮磷输移通量下降趋势更为明显。A statistical regression model between pollutant flux and river discharge was established by using LOADEST model based on the hydrologic and water quality data at the section of Huai River into Hongze Lake from 2015 to 2020,and the pollutant flux of total nitrogen(TN)and total phosphorus(TP)from Huai River into Hongze Lake was estimated.The results showed that the average annual transport flux of TN and TP from 2005 to 2020 were(4730.14±1893.32)t and(257.56±108.53)t,respectively.Affected by river discharge,the transport fluxes of TN and TP were significantly correlated with river discharge(p<0.01).M-K test analysis showed that the transport fluxes of TN and TP in Huai River had a decreasing trend in general during the study period,and the decreasing trend was more obvious after December 2018 due to the dual effects of lake water volume and the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus.

关 键 词：总氮 总磷 输移通量 LOADEST模型 M K检验 淮河 洪泽湖 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]