防范化解债务风险背景下地方政府信用评级研究  

A Study on Local Government Credit Ratings in the Context of Debt Risk Prevention and Resolution

作　　者：禄丹 秦志远 李翠翠 Lu Dan;Qin Zhiyuan;Li Cuicui

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院 [2]安融信用评级有限公司 [3]中财—安融地方财政投融资研究所

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2023年第5期20-32,共13页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：随着地方政府债券规模越来越大,中国防范化解债务风险的压力也随之增大。依据国际经验和中国实际情况,建立一套科学、合理和完善的地方政府信用评级体系,是中国债券市场健康发展及有效防范化解债务风险的关键。本文在总结美国、日本和印度等国家地方政府信用评级经验的基础上,通过对2022年度中国存量地方政府债券和各省份经济主体债券发行的违约率、违约损失率、发行票面利率和发行利差进行实证分析,发现目前中国地方政府债券信用评级区分度明显不够,在防范化解政府债务风险方面基本处于失效状态,其根本原因在于缺乏地方政府债券本身违约率检验、地方政府及其债券信息披露不充分和评级理念未与时俱进等。本文最后就中国地方政府信用评级提出若干改进建议。With the increasing scale of local government bonds,the pressure on China to prevent and resolve debt risks has also increased.Based on international experience and China's actual situation,establishing a scientific,reasonable and perfect local government credit rating system is the key to the healthy development of China's bond market and the effective prevention and resolution of debt risks.Based on the summary of local government credit rating experience in the United States,Japan and India,this paper analyzes empirically the default rate,default loss rate,issue coupon rate and issue spread of local government bonds and bonds issued by economic entities of each province in China in 2022,and finds that the current credit rating of local government bonds in China is obviously indistinguishable and basically fails in preventing and resolving government debt risks.The underlying reasons are the lack of local government bond default rate test,inadequate information disclosure of local governments and their bonds,and the failure of the rating concept to keep up with the times.The article concludes with several improvement suggestions for China's local government credit rating.

关 键 词：债务风险 地方政府债券 地方政府信用评级 地方政府 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]