公元600~800年的气候变化促使了吐蕃帝国的兴衰  

Climate change fostered rise and fall of the Tibetan Empire during 600–800 AD

作　　者：侯居峙 冀克家 朱二雷 董广辉 仝涛 储国强 刘卫国 吴文祥 张水龙 Jade D'Alpoim Guedes 陈发虎 Juzhi Hou;Kejia Ji;Erlei Zhu;Guanghui Dong;Tao Tong;Guoqiang Chu;Weiguo Liu;Wenxiang Wu;Shuilong Zhang;Jade D’Alpoim Guedes;Fahu Chen(Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation,State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Resources and Environment,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Institute of Archaeology,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China;Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an 710061,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Network Information System Technology,Institute of Electronics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Scripps Institution of Oceanography,Department of Anthropology,University of California San Diego,San Diego CA 92093,USA)

机构地区：[1]Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation,State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Resources and Environment,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China [3]College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China [4]Institute of Archaeology,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China [5]Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [6]Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an 710061,China [7]Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [8]Key Laboratory of Network Information System Technology,Institute of Electronics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China [9]Scripps Institution of Oceanography,Department of Anthropology,University of California San Diego,San Diego CA 92093,USA

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2023年第11期1187-1194,M0004,共9页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by Pan-Third Pole Environment Study for a Green Silk Road of the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20090000);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606400);Part laboratory and fieldwork costs were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41772178,91747207,and 41620104007);Field expedition was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition(2019QZKK0601)。

摘　　要：公元7~9世纪,吐蕃帝国成为一个介于唐王朝和阿拔斯王国之间的超级区域势力,在中世纪早期的亚洲地缘政治中发挥着重要作用.然而,作为青藏高原历史上唯一一个统一的地方政权,强大的吐蕃帝国兴起和衰落的原因存在诸多争议.本研究利用了青藏高原中部湖泊江错的纹层沉积物,基于精确的纹层定年和多种地球化学指标,重建了亚年际尺度的降水和年代际尺度的温度记录,发现吐蕃帝国发展、鼎盛阶段与一个长达两个世纪的异常温暖湿润期时间一致.生态位模型模拟显示气候的暖湿化可使得青稞可耕种面积扩大,增加农业生产力,并且牧草产量增高,可能会引起高原地区人口增加,并且会有充足的后勤补给.9世纪初的干旱则可能导致农业生产力下降,人口减少,加之内部战乱导致吐蕃迅疾衰亡.降水记录和吐蕃历史事件发生时间的紧密关系意味着吐蕃帝国实施了灵活的对外战略来应对气候变化的影响.在当今全球变暖的背景下,这一研究结果对包括青藏高原在内的高寒地区的农业生产具有重要意义.During the 7–9th century,the Tibetan Empire constituted a superpower between the Tang Empire and Abbasid Caliphate:one that played significant roles in geopolitics in Asia during the Early Medieval Period.The factors which led to the rise and rapid decline of this powerful Empire,the only united historical regime on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),remain unclear.Sub-annual scale precipitation and decadalscale temperature records of the central TP are presented,indicating that the height of this Empire coincided with a two-century long interval of uncharacteristically warm and humid climate.The ameliorated climate enabled the expansion of arable land and increased agricultural production.The close relationship between the precipitation records and historical events implied that the Empire implemented flexible strategies to tackle the effects of climate changes.This has implications for agricultural production in alpine regions including the TP,in the context of current global warming.

关 键 词：农业生产力 耕种面积 温度记录 鼎盛阶段 人口减少 生态位模型 模拟显示 后勤补给 

分 类 号：K242[历史地理—历史学] P467[历史地理—中国史]