冷战时期美国的危机决策与行为规则探讨——基于对里根政府处理1983年“韩航事件”的分析  

America's Crisis Management and Code of Conduct during the Cold War:Based on an Analysis of the Regan Administration's Handling of the KAL007 Incident in 1983

作　　者：赵建伟 Zhao Jianwei

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院,100871

出　　处：《国际政治研究》2023年第2期106-135,8,共31页The Journal of International Studies

摘　　要：1983年,美国和苏联围绕“韩航事件”的互动使其发展成一场特殊的“危机”。里根政府的危机管理既体现谨慎的克制,又展示愤怒的宣传,这种在“克制”和“愤怒”之间的平衡是这场危机没有全面升级的重要原因,但仍极大增加了苏联在道义和制度层面的国际压力。在此次危机中,两国主管部门之间存在不对等及特性差异,这在一定程度上导致双方对危机事态的判断出现差别。“韩航事件”扭转了美苏关系松动的势头,实质性地提前冻结了美苏军控谈判及其他合作的进程。在危机降级过程中,美国希望持续施压的同时,主动试探对苏“务实的重新接触”,抓住时机,提出恢复低层次合作,得到苏联有限的积极回应。美国的这一举措有助于双方在高度战略互疑的形势下维持最基本互动,不至于双边关系脱轨。此次危机管理产生的积极成果是1985年美苏日就防止类似事件再次发生所签署的备忘录,以及1986年三方开通新的航空通话系统。In 1983,the interaction between the United States and the Soviet Union over the Korean Air Lines Flight Oo7 Incident evolved into a special"crisis."The Reagan administration managed the crisis with both restraint and fury.Its balancing between the two approaches was an important reason why the crisis did not escalate comprehensively while the United States imposed increased international pressure on the Soviet Union at both the moral and institutional levels.The crisis reversed the détente between the two superpowers,freezing arms control negotiations and other cooperative mechanisms.In the process of de-escalation,the United States hoped to exert continued pressure while actively exploring"realistic re-engagement"with the Soviet Union.It proposed the resumption of low-level cooperation,which received positive albeit limited responses from the Soviet Union.This reengagement had helped the two sides maintain the most basic interactions in the absence of trust and prevented relations from beingderaileodr out of control.The Memorandum of Understanding Concerning Air Traffic Control signed by the United States,the Soviet Union,and Japan in 1985 and the launching of a 24-hour telephone hotline in 1986 were two positive results of this crisis management.

关 键 词：地区与国别政治 美国 冷战 危机管理 里根政府 苏联 “韩航事件” 危机决策 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D851.2[政治法律—外交学]