房产税政策、土地财政行为与宏观经济波动  

Property Tax Policy,Land Finance and Business Cycle in China

作　　者：舒鹏 周少甫[1] Shu Peng;Zhou Shaofu(School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,430074

出　　处：《经济评论》2023年第3期97-116,共20页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“土地、人口、产业三位一体城镇化路径研究”(批准号:15BJL053);中央高校基本科研业务费项目“新型城镇化战略下的土地财政、房价波动与宏观调控政策研究”(批准号:2019WKYXZ020)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于房产税立法稳步推进的政策背景,通过构建一个包含异质性住房、地方政府土地供给决策以及税收要素的多部门DSGE模型,刻画和分析了房产税征收对地方政府土地财政行为以及宏观经济波动的影响机制。研究发现:(1)存量房产税政策能够显著降低房价与地价的均衡值,并有效抑制地方政府的土地出让行为;(2)降低地方政府对土地出让金的支配比例能够在一定程度上平抑房价与地价的波动幅度,但同时也会增加总产出向下偏离原稳态的持续时间,并促使土地财政行为由土地出让向土地抵押融资转变;(3)差异化的房产税政策能够对居民消费、商业投资以及总产出形成显著的正面效应,并有助于推动投资性房产向居住用途转移;(4)在土地资源持续减少的背景下,房产税政策实现产出效应的时点会被显著延后,土地抵押贷款逐渐成为地方政府的主要融资模式。Based on the background of steady progress of property tax legislation,this paper portrays and analyzes the impact mechanism of property tax collection on local governments' land finance behavior and macroeconomic fluctuations by constructing a multi-sectoral DSGE model that includes heterogeneous housing,local governments' land supply decisions and taxation elements.The research finds that:(1)Property tax policy can significantly reduce the equilibrium values of house and land prices and effectively curb the land concession behavior of local governments.(2)Although reducing the proportion of land concessions at the disposal of local governments can mitigate the volatility of house and land prices to a certain extent,it will also increase the duration of the downward deviation of aggregate output from the original steady-state and prompt a further shift in land finance behavior from land concessions to land mortgage financing.(3)Differentiated property tax policies have a significant positive effect on consumption,investment,and output,and also can help drive a shift from investment housing to residential use.(4)Against the backdrop of a continuous reduction in land resources,the timing of the output effect caused by the property tax policy is significantly delayed,and land mortgage loans become the main financing mode of local governments.

关 键 词：房产税 土地财政 经济波动 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]