农业灌溉用水效率悖论:技术进步与反弹效应--基于京津冀面板数据的实证分析  

Paradox of Water Efficiency or Agricultural Irrigation: Technological Progress and Rebound Effect: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Date of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area

作　　者：王永强[1] 王哲[1] WANG Yongqiang;WANG Zhe(College of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding Hebei 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第7期117-124,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“京津冀农业用水反弹效应经验测算、生成机理与政策引导研究”(17BJY093);河北省教育厅2021年度人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“经济与生态协调下河北省农业节水问题研究”(ZD202115)。

摘　　要：农业节水技术被认为是提高农业用水效率、减少农业用水总量的关键途径。然而,农业技术的进步导致农业用水效率的提高一定会减少区域农业用水总量么?通过构建农业用水反弹效应模型,利用2000—2019年京津冀地区的农业生产面板数据,运用Malmquist指数测算农业技术进步增长率,进而估算京津冀地区的农业用水反弹效应。研究结果表明:(1)节水灌溉技术的使用有效减少了农业灌溉用水,京津冀三地均存在不同程度的农业用水反弹效应。北京市农业用水反弹效应最低,天津市次之,河北省最高。(2)三个地区农业用水反弹效应年际波动较为明显,大体呈现出下降趋势。(3)农业灌溉面积、耗水作物面积、农业用水管理是影响农业用水反弹效应的关键因素。据此,政府应从加大节水宣传、完善农业水权水价市场、发展基层农业用水组织等方面降低农业用水反弹效应。Agricultural water-saving technology is considered to be the key way to improve the efficiency of agricultural water use and reduce the total amount of agricultural water use.However,the progress of agricultural technology leads to the improvement of agricultural water use efficiency will certainly reduce the total amount of regional agricultural water use?The Malmquist index was used to calculate the growth rate of agricultural technology progress,and then to estimate the agricultural water rebound effect in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area by constructing a rebound effect model of agricultural water use and using the data of the agricultural production panel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area from 2000 to 2019.The results are show as follows:(1)The application of water-saving irrigation technology effectively reduces agricultural irrigation water use.But there are different degrees of agricultural water rebound effect in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.The agricultural water rebound effect in Beijing is the lowest,Tianjin is the second,Hebei is the highest.(2)The interannual fluctuation of the agricultural water rebound effect in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area is obvious,which shows a downward trend over a long period of time.(3)The key factors affecting the agricultural water rebound effect are the agricultural irrigation area,water-intensive crops area and agricultural water resource management.Therefore,the government should reduce the rebound effect of agricultural water use by increasing water conservation publicity,improving the agricultural water rights and water price market,and developing grass-roots agricultural water use organizations.

关 键 词：农业灌溉用水效率 技术进步 反弹效应 MALMQUIST指数 京津冀地区 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济] S274[农业科学—农业水土工程]