京津冀及周边地区大气污染防治工作方案实施效果评估--基于双重差分模型的实证分析  

Evaluation of the Implementation Effect of the Work Plan for the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and It’s Surrounding Areas:Empirical Analysis Based on Differences-in-Differences Model

作　　者：申伟宁 苏爽 柴泽阳 SHEN Weining;SU Shuang;CHAI Zeyang(School of Public Administration,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050061,China;Hebei Collaborative Innovation Center for Urban-Rural Integrated Development,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050061,China;School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China)

机构地区：[1]河北经贸大学公共管理学院,河北石家庄050061 [2]河北省城乡融合发展协同创新中心,河北石家庄050061 [3]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第7期209-215,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：河北省科技厅软科学研究项目“大气污染治理政策效果评估与创新路径研究”(215576106D);河北省高等学校科学研究项目“《京津冀及周边地区大气污染防治工作方案》实施效果评估研究”(SD2022011);河北经贸大学京津冀协同发展科研专项项目“京津冀城市群大气污染协同治理的创新路径研究”(JXT2020YB04);河北经贸大学科研项目“基于生态约束的雄安新区可持续集约土地利用评价研究”(2022ZD05)。

摘　　要：基于2014—2019年京津冀大气污染传输通道“2+26”城市及周边地区共计49个地级市的空气质量面板数据,以《京津冀及周边地区2017年大气污染防治工作方案》(下称《工作方案》)为准自然实验,采用双重差分模型研究了《工作方案》的污染减排效果及其异质性特征。结论如下:《工作方案》的实施显著改善了京津冀及周边地区的空气质量,且京津冀地区空气质量的改善效应显著高于其他地区,即核心城市的减排效应要高于边缘城市,呈现出明显的区域异质性与动态持续性,并运用平行趋势检验、反事实检验、剔除部分样本等方法进行了稳健性检验,上述结论依然成立。总体而言,该《工作方案》的实施对于京津冀及周边地区大气污染治理成效显著。Based on the air quality panel data of 49 prefecture-level cities in total in the“2+26”cities and their surrounding areas of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei atmospheric pollution transmission channel from 2014 to 2019,taking“The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and It’s Surrounding Areas in 2017”as a quasi-natural experiment,the pollution reduction effect and its heterogeneity characteristics of the Work Plan are studied by using Differences-in-Differences model.The main conclusions are as follows:The implementation of the Work Plan has significantly improved the air quality of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas,and the improvement effect of air quality in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is significantly higher than that in other areas,that is,the emission reduction effect of core cities is higher than that of marginal cities,showing obvious regional heterogeneity and dynamic sustainability.The above conclusion is still valid by using parallel trend test,counterfactual test,elimination of partial samples and other methods.Overall,the implementation of the Work Plan has achieved remarkable results in the control of air pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas.

关 键 词：京津冀大气污染传输通道 “2+26”城市 双重差分模型 政策效果 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]