基于GIS和证据权模型的山阳县地质灾害易发性评价  

Evaluation of the Geological Disaster Susceptibility in Shanyang County Based on GIS and Evidence-Weight-Model

作　　者：王伟中 李树兴 杨成 许涛 宋飞[3] 曹小红[1] 李浩然 王伟华 Wang Weizhong;Li Shuxing;Yang Cheng;Xu Tao;Song Fei;Cao Xiaohong;Li Haoran;Wang Weihua(Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Geological Hazard Prevention(Xinjiang Institute of Engineering),Urumqi,Xinjiang,830000,China;Gansu Provincial Architecture Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd,Lanzhou,Gansu,730030,China;Department of Geological Engineering and Geomatics,Chang’an University,Xi’an,Shaanxi,710054,China;School of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou,Gansu,730050,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆地质灾害防治重点实验室(新疆工程学院),新疆乌鲁木齐830000 [2]甘肃省建筑设计研究院有限公司,甘肃兰州730030 [3]长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,陕西西安710054 [4]兰州理工大学土木工程学院,甘肃兰州730050

出　　处：《新疆地质》2023年第2期262-269,共8页Xinjiang Geology

基　　金：山阳县地质灾害风险调查评价项目(2249-194HDZB19203-02)资助。

摘　　要：地质灾害易发性涉及因素众多,评价结果取决于不同模型和参量权重赋值为当前研究热点。以陕西省山阳县为研究区域,在收集整理区域地质环境条件、地质灾害分布资料、相关性分析等基础上,最终选取坡度、坡向、坡型、工程地质岩组、距断层距离、距河流距离、距道路距离等8个影响因子,采用证据权模型对8个影响因子进行分析,使用GIS空间分析功能对研究区开展地质灾害易发性评价。结果显示,山阳县地质灾害易发等级可划分为高易发、中易发、低易发和非易发4个等级,面积分别为262.2 km^(2)、436.7 km^(2)、1141.6 km^(2)、1694.5 km^(2),占山阳县总面积的7.48%、12.35%、32.29%、47.94%。进一步采用ROC曲线方法检验评价等级结果的可靠性,得到AUC为0.8242(精度达82.42%)。Geological hazard susceptibility involves many factors,and the evaluation results depend on different mod-els and parameter weight assignments and become a hot spot of current research.Taking Shanyang County of Shaanxi Province as the study area,on the basis of collecting and organizing regional geological environment conditions,geologi-cal hazard distribution data and correlation analysis,eight influence factors such as slope,slope direction,slope type,en-gineering geological rock group,distance from fault,distance from river and distance from road were finally selected,and the evidence weight model was used to analyze these eight influence factors,and the GIS spatial analysis function was used to carry out Geological hazard susceptibility evaluation was carried out in the study area using GIS spatial anal-ysis.The results show that the geological hazard susceptibility level in Shanyang County can be classified into four lev-els:high,medium,low and non-susceptible,with an area of 262.2 km^(2),436.7 km^(2),1141.6 km^(2) and 1694.5 km^(2),account-ing for 7.48%,12.35%,32.29%and 47.94%of the total area of Shanyang County,respectively.The ROC curve method was further used to test the reliability of the evaluation grade results,and the AUC was obtained as 0.8242(i.e.,the accu-racy reached 82.42%).The results of this paper are expected to provide a reference basis for geological disaster preven-tion and control in Shanyang County.

关 键 词：Arc GIS 地质灾害 易发性评价 证据权模型 ROC曲线 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]