流域水文模型参数不确定性量化技术研究进展  

Research Progress in Quantifying Parameters Uncertainties in Basin Hydrological Models

作　　者：刘希琛 阚光远 梁珂[4] LIU Xi-chen;KAN Guang-yuan;LIANG Ke(State Key Laboratory of Basin Water Cycle Simulation and Regulation,Beijing 100038,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Research Center on Flood&Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resource,Beijing 100038,China;Beijing Zhongshui Engineering Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [3]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038 [4]北京中水科工程集团有限公司,北京100048

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第3期468-476,共9页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510605);中国水利水电科学研究院十四五“五大人才”计划(JZ0199A032021);中国水科院减灾中心“基础研究型”科技创新人才项目;北京师范大学北京市重点实验室开放基金(HYD2020OF02)。

摘　　要：流域水文模型参数存在不确定性,不确定性对模型模拟与预测的精度产生显著影响。如何科学量化参数不确定性并分析其产生的不良影响是水文模拟中亟待解决的重要难题。为了研究这一问题,回顾和归纳了不确定性量化研究领域涉及的方法与技术,讨论了不确定性研究各环节中的成熟成果与亟待解决的问题。最后,对流域水文模型参数不确定性量化技术的应用前景进行了展望。There is uncertainty in the parameters of the basin hydrological model,and the uncertainty has a significant impact on the accuracy of model simulation and prediction.How to scientifically quantify parameter uncertainties and analyze their adverse effects is an important challenge to be solved in hydrological simulation.To investigate this issue,the methods and techniques involved in the field of uncertainty quantification research are reviewed and summarized,and the mature results and urgent problems in various aspects of uncertainty research are discussed.Finally,the prospect of the application of parameter uncertainty quantification techniques for watershed hydrological models is presented.

关 键 词：水文模型 量化技术 不确定性分析 

分 类 号：TV122.5[水利工程—水文学及水资源]