基于土地利用变化的广州国土空间格局优化研究  

Optimization of Guangzhou’s territorial space pattern based on land use changes

作　　者：杨文杰 何华贵[1,2] 杜剑光 YANG Wenjie;HE Huagui;DU Jianguang(Guangzhou Urban Planning&Design Survey Research Institute,Guangzhou 510060,China;Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing,Monitoring and Early Warning,Guangzhou 510060,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院,广州510060 [2]广东省城市感知与监测预警企业重点实验室,广州 510060

出　　处：《时空信息学报》2023年第1期111-117,共7页JOURNAL OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL INFORMATION

基　　金：广东省城市感知与监测预警企业重点实验室资助项目(2020B121202019)。

摘　　要：在乡村振兴和新型城镇化发展的背景下,如何统筹国土空间格局,优化生产、生活、生态空间是目前需要解决的问题。以广州为例,将MCR(minimum cumulative resistance)模型、斑块生成土地利用变化(patchgenerating land use simulation,PLUS)模型、马尔可夫(Markov)模型进行耦合形成MCR-PLUS-Markov模型,应用到城市国土空间格局优化研究中。在生态安全格局下建立生态源阻力面和阻力源阻力面,构建生态安全格局功能分区,设置不同的城市发展情景,进行不同情景下国土空间发展预测模拟与分析,通过预测模拟结果进行国土空间格局优化研究。结果表明,基于MCR-PLUS-Markov模型的预测模拟分析,精度评价相对较高,对广州国土空间格局预测分析具有较好的适用性。Against the backdrop of rural revitalization and the development of new urbanization,it is crucial to coordinate the land space pattern and optimize the spaces for production,living,and ecology.Taking Guangzhou as an case study,this research integrates the PLUS model,MCR model,and Markov model to form the MCR-PLUS-Markov model,which is applied the optimization study of territorial spacial pattern.Under the framework of ecological security pattern,ecological source resistance surfaces and the resistance source resistance surfaces are established.Different urban development scenarios are set to simulate and analyze the development of territorial spacial pattern under different scenarios.The simulation results are then used for the optimization study of territorial spacial pattern.The results show that the prediction and simulation analysis based on the MCR-PLUS-Markov model achieve high accuracy and yield favorable results in predicting and analyzing of the territorial spacial pattern in Guangzhou.

关 键 词：MCR-PLUS-Markov模型 生态安全格局 土地利用变化模拟 国土空间格局优化 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F301.2[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] TU98