基于生存分析理论的电子资源用户流失预测研究——以电子资源校外访问系统为例  

Research on Electronic Resource User Churn Prediction:Taking Off-campus Access System of Electronic Resource as Example

作　　者：刁羽 薛红 Diao Yu;Xue Hong

机构地区：[1]四川轻化工大学图书馆,四川自贡643000

出　　处：《新世纪图书馆》2023年第5期55-62,共8页New Century Library

基　　金：四川省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地——新建院校改革与发展研究中心项目“新建本科院校重点学科教学参考资源数据库构建——基于RISS2资源建设与服务平台”(项目编号:XJYX2019B05)系列成果。

摘　　要：基于电子资源校外访问系统用户行为数据,运用生存分析理论中的Kaplan-Meier、COX比例风险模型研究用户整体流失概率变化规律、用户个体访问行为与其流失概率之间的发展变化规律及相关关系,并在预测用户流失临界点的基础上建立用户流失预警机制,从而为进一步采取用户流失干预措施提前布局。本研究能反映出用户访问行为与用户流失概率之间的变化情况,具有较高的应用价值和推广价值。Based on the user behavior data of the off-campus access system of electronic resources,the Kaplan-Meier and COX proportional risk models in the survival analysis theory were used to study the change law of the overall probability of user churn,the law of development change and the correlation between the individual user access behavior and the churn probability,and a user churn warning mechanism based on predicting the critical point of user churn was established.Therefore,the further implementation of user churn intervention measures in advance layout.This study can reflect the change between user access behavior and user churn probability,and has high application value and promotion value.

关 键 词：用户流失 流失预警 生存分析 校外访问系统 电子资源行为数据 

分 类 号：G252.62[文化科学—图书馆学]