基于企业货运设施的城市货运交通生成及分布建模方法研究  

Research on the Method of Urban Freight Traffic Generation and Distribution Modeling Based on Corporate Freight Facilities

作　　者：谭俊宇 李晟 林昊成 杨超[1] 袁泉 Tan Junyu;Li Sheng;Lin Haocheng;Yang Chao;Yuan Quan

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室 [2]华南理工大学土木与交通学院

出　　处：《交通与港航》2023年第3期24-33,共10页Communication & Shipping

摘　　要：近年来电子商务的活跃导致城市货运需求激增,对货运交通规划提出更高要求。目前城市货运交通需求预测依赖于传统交通规划四阶段模型,该模型在交通需求生成阶段基于土地利用类别均质假设,在不同土地利用形态下货车生成率保持不变。企业货运设施是生成货车需求的一类重要土地利用形式,研究其货运生成对掌握城市货运交通的总体流向有重要价值。鉴于现有方法对货车生成行为机理解析的不充分,该文基于货运交通生成及分布的基本特征,通过实地调研和货车轨迹数据分析,研究企业货运设施货车生成率的空间异质性,并与传统基于土地利用类别的建模方法进行对比。以上海市嘉定区安亭镇及南翔镇为例,利用VISUM交通仿真软件对两类建模方法下的城市货运交通生成及分布结果进行仿真模拟。最后,利用上海市一周的货车轨迹数据提取出货车真实OD,并与两类建模的交通分布结果进行对比分析,验证了基于企业货运设施建模方法的相对优越性。该文为提升货运需求预测能力,优化城市货运交通规划提供参考。In recent years,the surge in e-commerce activity has led to a sharp increase in urban freight demand,posing higher requirements for freight transportation planning.At present,the forecast of urban freight traffic demand depends on the traditional four-stage traffic planning model,which assumes uniform land use categories in the traffic demand generation stage,and keeps the truck generation rate constant under different land use patterns.However,enterprise freight facilities are a significant type of land use that generates truck demand.Studying their freight generation is of great importance to understanding the overall flow of urban freight traffic.Given the insufficient analysis of truck generation behavior in current methods,this paper investigates the spatial heterogeneity of the truck generation rate at enterprise freight facilities based on the basic characteristics of freight traffic generation and distribution,through field surveys and analysis of truck trajectory data,comparing it with traditional modeling methods based on land use categories.Taking the Anting and Nanxiang towns in Jiading District,Shanghai as examples,the VISUM traffic simulation software is used to simulate the generation and distribution of urban freight traffic under the two modeling methods.Finally,using a week's worth of truck trajectory data from Shanghai to extract the actual OD of the trucks,a comparative analysis is conducted with the traffic distribution results of the two modeling methods,verifying the relative superiority of the modeling method based on enterprise freight facilities.This is aimed at improving the capability to predict freight demand and providing reference for optimizing urban freight transportation planning.

关 键 词：企业货运设施 货运交通建模 货运生成 货运分布 货车轨迹 

分 类 号：U492.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]