全球价值链视角下中国就业变动及驱动因素研究  

China’s Employment Change and Driving Factors under Global Value Chains

作　　者：谢锐[1] 牛猛 张斌 XIE Rui;NIU Meng;ZHANG Bin(School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410006,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410006

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2023年第5期49-59,共11页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(21FJLB009)。

摘　　要：本文在Reijnders和de Vries全要素生产率测算的基本框架下同时考虑行业和技能异质性,并利用WIOD数据库以及相配套的劳动力就业数据库,多维度考察中国就业变动的整体、行业和技能特点。按照各因素的相对贡献,本文利用链式结构分解方法,深入探究全要素生产率效应、劳动投入系数效应、中间投入外包效应、最终需求外包效应、最终需求规模效应和最终需求的产品结构效应对中国就业变动的影响,得到的基本结论如下:中国整体及细分行业参与全球价值链的新增就业规模庞大,加入世贸组织后服务业相较于制造业实现了更快增长。此外,各类技能劳动者的工作时长明显增加,并以低技能劳动者的工时延长最大。结构分解结果表明,最终需求规模增加对中国就业增长的贡献相对最大,技术进步显著抑制就业增长,与全要素生产率效应相比,劳动投入系数下降是抑制中国就业增长的关键因素。外包对就业的影响因生产工序不同存在显著差异,但最终需求外包增加对中国就业的促进作用明显更大。当纳入细分行业和技能就业的考虑,这些驱动因素的影响同样具备差异性。本文研究结论对我国如何实现更充分和更高质量的就业具有重要启示意义。Employment is not only the greatest livelihood,but also the most basic support for economic development.Clarifying China’s global value chains(GVCs)employment,and its changing mechanism would shed light on how to achieve higher quality and fuller employment in the future.Under the global input-output accounting framework,the method of Reijnders&de Vries(2018)to measure the production technology of various industries in various countries based on the hypothesis of national productivity is improved,and the total factor productivity of national industry level is introduced by our paper.China’s GVCs employment change under global value chains at the aggregate,industry and skill levels are then comprehensively measured and analyzed.The chaining structural decomposition analysis(SDA)is further adopted to explore the roles of TFP,labor input coefficient,intermediate input outsourcing,final demand outsourcing,the product structure of final demand and final demand scale.The proposed accounting framework is then applied to empirical analysis using the world input-output tables released in 2016 and the matched employment data,covering the period from 2000 to 2014.Of course,the world input-output tables released in 2013 and the matched employment data at the skill level,covering the period from 2000 to 2009,are also used.Our findings suggest that the scale of China’s GVCs employment growth is obvious at the both aggregate and industrial levels.After China’s entry into WTO,the service industry attracts more investment,and achieves faster growth than the manufacturing industry.In addition,the working hours of skilled workers increased significantly,while that of low skilled workers extended the most.The decomposition results show that the growth of China’s employment is mainly driven by the expansion of final demand scale.In contrast,technological progress has significantly inhibited China’s employment growth,and compared with the increase of TFP,the decrease of labor input coefficient has a stronger inhibitory eff

关 键 词：全球价值链 就业变动 结构分解分析 技术效应 外包效应 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]